First off, I want to say that I am of course totally elated that we earned promotion.
Everyone at work was asking how chuffed I was and I’ve only known most of them for the last few weeks.
It’s because I’m always going on about the Villa, hence everyone knows I’m a fan.
But I commented that I felt strangely calm after the game was over and I’ll expand on that shortly.
First off, while Sky thought it was a good game, I didn’t think so.
I think the occasion got to both teams, which is no surprise as it often happens, but I just felt neither side were as creative as they have been this season.
I’m not alone either as the one Villa fan working with me agreed that we’d been below our best for the last four or five games.
Still, there’s no doubt we were the better side overall, albeit with a worrying last 10 minutes or so and there were no complaints from my Derby supporting mates who said we deserved it.
I don’t think any player stood out, but El Ghazi did well, along with McGinn and Hourihane too, who struck me by actuallly getting stuck into a few tackles. Still, it’s a team game and overall we were better than theirs.
I still think it’s a terrible way to lose out though, as we know to our cost last season.
So why was I so calm then?
Well, I was actually that calm, I lay down to contemplate what I was going to write on here and promptly fell asleep, staying the same until it was time to get up for work; a full eleven hours!
It’s the realisation that getting promoted is only a small part of the job.
While the win was great, my thoughts immediately shifted to asking how are we going to stay up next season? and contrary to some Villa fan who was on the radio this morning predicting we’ll be in the top four next season, the reality is we’ll be lucky to survive.
Which then led me to thinking about who we need to keep and let go.
Who is good enough to play in the Premier league?
And this is where you’re going to have to forgive me, as although it might seem I’m being ruthless in my assessment, I just think I’m being realistic.
In my opinion, Jack Grealish will be good enough, as will John McGinn, who I think will set the league alight in the same way Milner did.
And then I have to think harder.
Mings makes the cut, but will have to be less sloppy, as he won’t have the time he’s been given in the Championship. Hause maybe makes it too.
Taylor simply isn’t good enough and although he’s improved lately will not make the grade in the Prem. Elmohamady isn’t Prem standard either.
We’ll definitely need a quality DM, as I’m guessing Jedinak will leave, as will Bjarnason, although Whelan might have done enough to get another season.
I have serious doubts about Hourihane too, at Prem level, the same as Lansbury, who can’t get a look in as it stands (I know he’s been injured).
El Ghazi will either be brilliant or utter rubbish, I can’t decide.
Adomah is done and Green still isn’t ready, so we’ll need a better RW.
Kodjia just about makes it because he is decent backup across the front.
And I have my doubts about Abraham. He’s a good player, but I don’t think he’s come of age just yet and couldn’t see him getting us more than 10 goals in the Prem., which is decent, but would it keep us up?
I haven’t massively analysed things, but it’s more a gut feeling.
Hence, it seems obvious to me, we need a big clearout and that’s without all the deadwood the club carries.
Of course, we’re going to have to keep some of the players I’ve mentioned, as we don’t have a bottomless pot of money to do a Man City type spending spree and FFP probably won’t allow it anyway.
But we’re going to have to spend some very serious money whichever way you look at it.
I saw a Daily Mail article today, which suggests Norwich and Sheffield will have around £20 million to spend, while we’ll have £50 million.
If that’s the case, we’re all relegated before we start, in my opinion.
What does an average striker cost these days?
There’s the argument that Fulham spent £100 million plus and changed it up too much, yet they’re still relegated.
But do we think they’d have had a hope in hell of staying up if they didn’t go for it? I don’t.
And yes, Wolves have done extremely well, but they were head and shoulders above the rest of the Championship last season and we all know about the level of player they brought in. Which means they’ll prove to be a bit of a one-off. Indeed, if you look at history, they are a bit of a one-off, as the majority of promoted clubs go straight back down.
The good news is Dean Smith has a good eye for a bargain.
But he’s going to have to go some to bring in lower league players who are able to perform at Prem level.
It’s going to be very interesting times in the next few months.
Comments
103 responses to “Thoughts on the playoff and sobering thoughts of next season”
Seems like a number of championship clubs are still unhappy about us breaching FFP and want us scrutinised and hit with a points deduction if found guilty. I hope it’s a storm in a teacup and nothing comes of it. We could end up with a transfer embargo if found guilty. Purslow assures us that everything is above board but I can’t help but feel we have been sailing close to the wind with regards to wages and transfer fees, especially when compared to other clubs in the championship.
On another note, a huge thank you to Uncle Albert, The Scottish Cafu, Tommy Elphick and The Jedi if they are leaving. All of them contributed to giving the fans their club back. And of course Hutts goal against Small Heath will be remembered for many years to come.
This is being driven by Steve Gibson at Middlesbrough. I don’t fully understand FFP rules other than it’s supposed to protect the club (and it’s fans) from totting up too much indebtedness to ‘rich’ owners (Portsmouth being the prime example) but it seems to rely heavily on aggregated losses over a three year rolling period which, in isolation, is frankly meaningless (ask the Bolton fans!).
Edens and Sawiris have not, as far as I can tell, lent AVFC a penny but have invested in Villa by acquiring further shares thus increasing shareholders funds, improving liquidity and also strengthening the balance sheet. Losses in isolation do not create financial difficulties – it’s also true that profits on paper don’t ensure liquidity.
We now have extremely wealthy owners and whether we like it or not it’s going to attract a ‘jealous’ reaction from clubs as it did with Wolves last season. If we want to be successful in today’s football we are unlikely to be popular (would we complain if we were one of the Sky 6 – I doubt it)
If we are in breach of FFP – firstly it depends on the severity of the breach as to the penalty. Secondly will the Premier League actually deduct points from a newly promoted club – that will create a precedent that is unwanted and will, possibly, provoke a legal challenge from our owners.
Final point – our financial year 18/19 ends today. So any ‘furious reaction’ from EFL clubs is based on suspicion, rumour and Steve Gibson’s outbursts. Only Villa know what are in the management accounts and it’s likely to be months before any formal accounts are submitted.
Apologies for the diatribe.
Apologies – should have clarified that Villa’s accounts for the rolling three year period to May 2018 have already been cleared by the EFL
You’ve pretty much covered it all there, Hitch.
We will not be punished for a breach of FFP in my opinion because Purslow says so.
He was on the committee that wrote the rules and (as I read elsewhere), “he knows how to hide the bodies” 🙂
And if it was necessary, he’d have advised NSWE to buy the stadium (if they haven’t already, we haven’t seen the accounts).
I’m not worried about it, as it’s not as though the owners can’t cover any debt, which is surely what FFP is supposed to be about?
IE the risk of dodgy owners taking on the debt and then walking away, leaving the club in trouble.
Exactly Badger – if we were deep in debt to Edens & Sawiris with a weak balance sheet it would be a different matter – but they are far too savvy (and rich!) to go down that route.
As an aside it seems that Gibson has got all het up with Derby, not because one of the owners companies bought the stadium but because he paid £80m – allegedly twice it’s true value! Now that does seem to be treading on tight lines – bit like Man City’s sponsorship deal just after they were bought 🙂
It’s just sour grapes from Gibson. If Purslow says we’re okay then we’re okay.
I don’t want to be coarse but as far as I’m concerned fuck Gibson and fuck the EFL, we’re a Premier League club now.
My thoughts too P57. There’s no chance we will enter the PL with a points deduction. Paper talk and sour grapes.
Agreed about Gibson, but don’t think we can have that attitude with the EFL.
As for the £80 mill, that was kind of my point a couple of weeks back, where I suggested we could get £200 mill on paper for VP.
Pride park has no history and it’s frankly just a modern bowl, similar to many others, after all.
I’m with you Badger where the stadium price is artificially inflated and the sale and lease back isn’t an arms length deal. Wouldn’t need to inflate the value of Villa Park – it’s priceless.
The Mail are saying the Jota deal has been completed;
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/aston-villa-birmingham-city-jota-16363283
Whelan has gone too.
“Aston Villa has today released eight players.
They are Mile Jedinak, Alan Hutton, Tommy Elphick, Albert Adomah, Glenn Whelan, Ritchie De Laet, Mark Bunn and Micah Richards.
We’d like to thank all of them for their contributions and wish them the best of luck for the future.”
Aston Villa have announced today that they will not be renewing the contracts of eight senior players in their final list of released players.
After it was announced on Wednesday that Albert Adomah would be leaving at the end of his contract, the floodgates have well and truly opened. Alan Hutton, Ritchie De Laet, Tommy Elphick and Mile Jedinak found the exit door as well as their contracts expired.It was long expected that Micah Richards and Mark Bunn would be let go as well. However, questions remained about whether Glenn Whelan would be given another year due to his performances this season – that is not the case, though.
Under Dean Smith the club have taken a first step into a new era and it looks like a lot of new faces will be arriving, and many more could yet leave. While Villa have tackled the problem of getting promoted from the Championship, they’ll have to tangle with the administrative issue of squad churn – how can they replace the senior players who left? Can they find the right fits? Can they do it without burning cash?
It remains to be seen. However, there seems to be an imminent incoming transfer on the horizon as Jota swaps Birmingham City for Aston Villa with the long-serving Gary Gardner going the other way. Adding a player that fits within Smith’s vision for the tactical setup of the club is a smart move – especially as it won’t break the bank.
As for the departing players, I hope you’ll join me in wishing them all the best for the future. One player, in Micah Richards, is attracting a large number of barbed comments from Villa fans. We’re all so much better than that. Adios, and thanks for all the memories – both good and bad. We’d not be here without these players
I feel sorry for Whelan in some way, he did help us to keep motivated.
That’s probably the best part of £350k a week saved in wages.
Badger I’m intrigued with £350k a week. This would equate to £18.2m per year. The good news is that if we take it as correct, before Premier income taken into account, we could afford 4 x players in £75k per week and 1 x £50k.
I like the type of player Smith is being associated with. Young and with something to prove. More importantly, we are not being connected with players who do the rounds of clubs that get relegated. I would go further and state these players will be cheaper to employ with a good resale value. Hopefully we will no longer be a club for players looking for one final pay check. Wouldn’t it be good if players sign for Villa knowing that we will add significant value to them. This in turn makes us into a far better team or allows players to be sold and profits reinvested.
Sid, the fact that we haven’t retained Whelan tells me this is deliberate policy.
It’s exactly why we will not be entertaining any thoughts about Cahill.
I suspect that even if Dean Smith wanted to keep Whelan, he was told no.
We’ve reduced the average player age, which reduces wages.
And indeed, leaves room for some very decent signings.
I see sensible buys, the likes of Jota, in a few positions, backed up with a couple of marquee signings.
Not so much a massive change in the starting eleven, but a big change to the senior squad.
Whilst I understand the approach from a business model perspective, I am concerned that we will be going into next season without (as it stands) any player with any real premier league experience – and buying it will be expensive without guarantee it will work. We also need to be aware of Fulham’s disastrous approach which involved significant player churn – whereas Cardiff stuck, mainly, to the squad that got them promoted.
The eight players released were all out of contract but what about other fringe first team players such as Bjarnasson, Lansbury and Bree who may not be up to the premier league – are they going as well? We already know that Gardner is leaving and it seems to me that we will be faced with a significant challenge of integrating a lot of new players into the squad.
For me, I would have preferred to see one or two of the senior players – such as Whelan (even Adomah) who have proved their worth to the club – retained on a one year extension to help with stability and experience.
Imho a high risk strategy.
as a rider – I know Cardiff got relegated but they made a better fist of it than Fulham!
Hence my thoughts that led to the headline, Hitch.
It seems to me that many fans think we’ll survive comfortably. and a Brum Mail poll seems to back it up.
I’m not so sure.
That said, Smith will go into the games with an attack-minded attitude and it’ll catch a few sides out.
I do think we need a couple of top notch signings to help give us an edge though.
Striker is the big one for me.
the list of released players doesnt surprise me, smith is his own man and plays his own way. imo whelan should have got a extension solid reliable and experienced. but smith requires more than just that, plus he knows better than me. smith holding midfielder, should be able to step out like his two central defenders. smith will make villa much better with the ball. like he done at brentford.
i seen loads floating around saying, we are not buying premiership quality ?? thats not true. their are plenty players in the championship that could easily step up into the premiership.smith will be hunting players that can fit his system and make us stronger in long run.
i for one love this time of year being linked with this and that. smith finally gets his preseason that is when he will mould the squad to play as one.
cardiff did do better than fulham and i knew they would. but on paper cardiff had no premiership quality and fulham went out and intentionally seek out better quality players making loads of changes. which did not work because they ripped out their heart their team spirit.
i just watched pool win the champions league in a very poor quality game. i am drooling at the thoughts of taking on the cream of europe. the best two teams in europe are in the premiership. frightening or exciting not sure but its going to be fun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAY54jvd8Eg
Hope this works. Mr Filch is a Villa fan and was seen celebrating with Villa fans on the train home from Wembley. This is a video he made celebrating Villa’s 140th anniversary. Makes the hairs stand up on the back of your neck
Part of the Pride
Hitch, this is brilliant. The club should pay Mr Filch, and Dean Smith could do a lot worse than show that to every new signing, as well as every member of the current playing staff. Brilliant.
Here’s something that might put a smile on our face,
who laughs last, laughs the longest.
That’s the message that was running through some Aston Villa fans’ minds on Saturday night.
Tottenham were beaten 2-0 by Liverpool in the Champions League final in Madrid.
But rather than offer any sympathy to Spurs, the claret and blue faithful remembered one notable fan who aimed a dig at Dean Smith’s men back in May.
Anyone know who that was ,? Clue He’s a Lord.
Yep Bill – seen the twitter feeds – Villa fans paying him back for his arrogance. He won’t be feeling as sweet today 🙂
Made me smile Hitch, if ever a man ,needs to be put down a peg or two its him.
😂😆
Time to celebrate again! Ross McCormack has been released a year early from his contract. With Micah Richards gone as well that’s two parasites off the books 😀
I was just about to post the same.
Off the books yes, but we’ll have paid him not much short of what he would have got if he’d stayed.
Quite galling really, for a player who couldn’t even impress at Motherwell.
He must have some serious issues, imo.
I seriously doubt we’ll be making the continual mistakes in buying over-paid and too old players with no reasale value under our current owners and manager.
Hopefully they didn’t pay him any of the increase he was due for helping getting us promoted!
That’s the thing though Hitch, you can bet they have and that’s why it’s only now McCormack has decided to be bought out.
Collymore has estimated he’ll get £3 million 🙁
Nice work if you can get it!
The Cardiff goalie would be a tremendous signing. I think time is up for Nyland, and it looks like a toss up between Steer and Kalinic…
I’m not quite sold on the idea BFR, at a guess buying another keeper is to keep player’s on their toes, we have Steer who hasn’t put a foot wrong and got us to the premiership by saving the first two saves, now buying Cardiff goalie.I’d like to understand that move. We need a right Back, a striker, plus a midfield defender. Am I wrong in thinking that. Open to being educated.
No, you’re not wrong Bill – although not sure on the RB as we have acquired the elusive Fred Gilbert from Caen 🙂 plus Elmo so do we need another?
I was surprised Bill on the GK but there has been talk of Kalinic going out on loan and I suspect we might sell Nyland or keep him as third choice GK with Steer / Ethridge fighting for No1. Don’t know a lot about him – is he any improvement on what we have in Steer / Kalinic?
We defo need a LB and, at least 2 CB’s – probably 3 with Elphick going. One would hope Mings and Hause (who can also play LB) will join us. Agree on the other positions, perhaps add an attacking mid, and left and right wingers (El Ghazi and Jota?). That’s a heck of a lot of new players – I read somewhere that Villa are expected to sign 10 in the window and I expect some more outgoings – Hogan for instance?
Then the question is which, if any, of the kids are ready to step up to the first team squad – Green and Davis plus?
Busy, busy …….
Agreed, BFR.
Bill, Hitch;
I’m working with a Cardiff fan and he seriously reckons he’s worth £25 mill!
£25m – sounds similar to Villa (fans?) rating JG at £60m 🙂 on that basis £10m is probably a fair valuation in today’s stupid transfer market.
If you read the comments posted by Swansea fans on the B’ham mail article, they’re all content to see him leave for 10m and let their reserve keeper, Smith go in. Several mentioned his weakness in distribution and thinks there are question marks over his quality to succeed in the Prem. I’d rather stick with who we have if that’s what we’re going for.
According to my Cardiff workmate, he was their player of the year (in the Prem, don’t forget) so those comments seem a little odd?
Everyone is entitled to their opinion I guess. I’m not saying he’s a bad player – just saying that maybe he’s not exactly what we want, but maybe he’s the best we could attract right now. And I can see a strategy that maybe he’s tackling players that he’s worked with before, to overcome the squad harmony and integration problems that would exist from hiring unknown quantities. I do know he was the 4th best keeper in the Prem for Fantasy League… I don’t doubt he’s a solid keeper but I just query whether he’s needed.
That’s a very interesting point Texas – Dean Smith preferring to buy players that he has worked with before – maybe in preference to better options for the Prem? If so that is worrying!
I don’t know about the lad’s distribution but whenever I watched MOTD, he would be making outrageous, Bosnich style saves. If he was 4th best in the Prem’ with a relegated team, that says a lot. He would’ve been busy! I’m sure Cutler can help improve his kicking, if it’s as bad as they say, which I doubt.
Can you imagine Nyland’s goal being peppered by the likes of Aguero, Salah, and Aubameyang? We’d be breaking another record with 10 in it – a 10-0 loss to surpass the hammering Ipswich suffered to Utd in ’95! Don’t think Kalinic is ready for it either. So a proven Prem’ goalie is necessary, IMO…
Hitch, don’t worry about Smith’s apparent preferences for players he knows. I think that’s a good thing and makes perfect sense. It’s not all about ‘talent’ (look at Ozil and Pogba); Smith will want players with the right attitude, work ethic and personality. Basically, he’s looking for 10 more John McGinns! I’d rather that than lazy, ‘talented’ prima donnas who will destroy the magnificent team spirit Smith and his team have built in a few months. Trust in Smith!
Wasn’t there originally similar concerns expressed over Steer’s distribution? Certainly not evident after returning to the side. Agree about Nyland.
Tbf both Smith and Purslow have been clear about the type of player they want which accords with your points BFR. I’ve stopped worrying 🙂
Yes, Texas, opinions will always vary and that’s a good thing.
Tbh, I don’t know anything about Everidge, because I didn’t care less about the Prem because we weren’t in it 🙁
As for Smith, well I’d suggest everyone is more happy with people they know.
But i’d guess it’s more that Smith knows they have the right attitude and approach. And he feels he can improve them.
Where Fulham probably went wrong, is in trying to integrate players they knew little about personally.
And anyway, much has been made about Pitarch having a lot of input and Smith basically being in charge of coaching them.
So all this “Smith wants” probably won’t mean as much as we’re being told as part of all the speculation.
My guess is Smith will put forward names he knows (at decent prices), like Jota and the rest of the committee will strongly recommend the bits of quality that we will surely bring in too.
He’s not your everidge player Badger – he was twice MoM in games Cardiff lost. I think he is a great keeper and I am not a fan of Steer except now at Spot kicks. Etheridge – a keeper with a full season of facing Prem attackers is just what we need.
I hope they announce the signings of Mings and Hause soon! Not to mention El Ghazi – I think he has Mahrez levels of potential (very similar player IMO) and he could really relish the PL. Hope we try for Axel but it doesn’t sound like Utd will want to play. But why not test them with 18-20 milllion?
Alan Nixon of the Stun reckons Mings and Jota are definitely on, but Everidge is all about the fee.
No mention of Hause.
Badger, there was a piece in the Brum Mail towards the end of May saying that Villa had secured the signing of Hause as their first transfer but since then it’s been quiet on the subject – jumped the gun? Villa were reported as having an option to buy as part of his loan agreement – perhaps they aren’t yet sure whether to exercise it?
https://www.expressandstar.com/sport/football/aston-villa/2019/06/05/aston-villa-face-decision-on-move-for-wolves-defender-kortney-hause-as-deadline-looms/
‘Talk of the devil’ – update on Hause situation.
Just one more snippet hidden away in a Brum Mail regurgitation is that (according to the Mail) the Jota / Gardner swop deal ‘is being scrutinised by the EFL but is expected to go through’. I also read that Villa are subject to a ‘soft transfer embargo’. Any thoughts?
What is a soft transfer embargo?
No idea 🙂
As best as I can make out it means we can’t recruit new players without approval from the EFL (as it appears we are still under their jurisdiction). We can sell players and we can renew contracts. It may be that the EFL want to be satisfied that we are not in a major breach of FFP for the three years to the end of 2018/19 but as we haven’t published accounts and are not likely to for some time I’m at a loss to fully understand it. It may, however, explain why we haven’t been able to sign any players ….. yet.
It seems to me highly likely that we are going to sell and lease back Villa Park to NSWE Ltd.
Sky now reporting the Gardner / Jota swop
This from the Sun, and we all know about the Sun they never get it right.
ASTON VILLA have landed Jota for £4million from bitter local rivals Birmingham City with Gary Gardner heading in the opposite direction to St Andrews as part of the deal.
Villa boss Dean Smith is a big fan of the talented 27-year-old who played for him at Brentford, before Blues paid a club-record £6million to sign him two years ago.
We’re going to hear all sorts of guff over the next weeks and months about who Villa has on their radar. I’ll only believe it when I see them holding the shirt up.
Smith has to tread a delicate tightrope, get too few players in who can hack it in the Prem and do a Cardiff, or too many and do a Fulham. We are lucky in that we have a quality spine to the team with Mings (so long as we can get him), McGinn and Jack.
I don’t mind if we only get a few in, where we most obviously need them, and then seeing how we go. All we need to do is survive the first season and we can build from there.
Also don’t mind if Smith gets in some players he knows. If he feels that they can slot into the team and do the job in the Prem then let him try.
PS I saw Etheridge play on TV quite a few times last season and he’s a really good goalie. I think Steer did a great job this season but Etheridge would definitely be an improvement.