We’ve had plenty to talk about over the last couple of weeks, what with the possible takeover and hopefully Lambert getting his marching orders, but the most important thing now is surely our survival in the Premier league.
Just for now, nothing else matters as we all know that if we go down, it’s very doubtful that we would come straight back up.
We just aren’t tough enough and when we do try to be, we’re reckless in the tackle, something proven by the number of cards we receive week in, week out.
A bunch of kids is the last thing you want in the championship and well…. you get the picture.
So let’s concentrate on what needs to happen for us to go down then.
I’ve read lots of the maths on loads of sites, but some of them don’t seem to actually believe that we might not get a single point out of our last three games.
And indeed, they even seem to think that because we have a game in hand, we’re less likely to go down.
Never mind the fact that that game is Man City away.
Me, I go along with what seems the majority view amongst Villa fans, that it seems unlikely to me that we will get another point.
Yeah, it’s only Hull at home next and surely we’ll beat them???
Even that’s doubtful in my eyes. We look bereft of any creativety, Albrighton apart and even more bereft of goals.
All that said, Lambert does seem to have a knack of pulling off a result when it’s desperately needed.
Witness the back end of last season, where although my opinion was that we only beat a load of rubbish, it’s undeniable that we got the results needed to survive.
But on the assumption that we don’t take another point, I found Matt Kendrick’s explanation the simplest to understand.
While I’m mentioning Mr Kendrick, I’d like to say that I have noticed how he’s finally had the balls to come out and say that things need to change, after him seemingly supporting what’s gone on for nearly the whole season.
It’s not before time.
Anyway, here’s what it boils down to;
No points
If Villa get no points, leaving their tally at 35, then two of the following scenarios must happen for them to be relegated.
1 Cardiff beat Newcastle (a) and Chelsea (h).
2 Fulham beat Stoke (a) and Crystal Palace (h) or get four points with a win and a draw, with a 25-goal swing.
3 Norwich beat Chelsea (a) or Arsenal (h) with a 15-goal swing, or win both, or win one and draw one.
4 Sunderland win one game with a three-goal swing, or win one and get a least a draw in the other two games.
Can any of us really see two of those happening?
I can’t and for me 35 points, combined with our goal difference will be enough.
Nope, no chance two of those will happen. Fortunately.
I think we can get A point Saturday which should be enough. The Spurs game is another we could get a point, as long as we park the bus like Chelsea yesterday and hit em on the counter….Spurs defence are for the taking and it could me a game made for gabby (hate to say it)
I’d also be dropping Weimann as of Sat and give Robinson a start and use Helenius as sub.
True about Spurs, they’re really not that great. Thing against them is stopping Eriksen, and that’s not a feat a team’s been able to do as of yet.
Even city are beatable Sunderland nearly beat them and Wigan did. If they are still in title chase which I doubt as can see them losing to Everton then nerves may get tge better of them. They didn’t look that convincing v WBA either
Look who’s back to twitter. Why it’s MysteryMan, claiming it is Ellison taking Villa over.
MM has been spot on many times…if it’s the real him.
Not sounding bleak I do think it’s our year for the drop Fulham & the mackems safe.as mentioned on many occasions on the radio we have fuckall to offer. Norwich just bad luck to finish with toughys.Lambert & Lerner FUCKOFF
Have an uneasy feeling you’re right.
I don’t recall seeing anyone correctly predicting the way that recent results have actually gone at the bottom of the division – Sunderland and Fulham getting points, Palace escaping out of the drop zone a few weeks back, etc. – and just remember that we’ve been hearing how Villa should be ‘safe’ with just 1 or 3 more points for about the last five games, when all that’s happened is that we’ve lost and others have started winning.
Feels like Villa and Norwich will both drop, the only question is who’ll be the third?
Ardent, you may remember I was one of those saying that our survival was nowhere near certain, when most were saying we were pretty much assured safety.
Even though I was more negative than others then, I still think we’ll scrape it.
I think the only positive from last season to this is our gd is far superior to teams around us. This effectively gives us 36 points which is why most of us thought we’d be ok. Could be we stay up on gd ffs
Even so Giddy, do you really think TWO of those things will happen?
I’d say Sunderland have the best bet, but don’t even see that happening, tbh.
MATE I’m a strong believer in think the worst then anything else is a bonus., so basically your prepared for the worst if it happens.
hope for the best, plan for the worst is the saying i beleive
In hopeing for the best you then could get kicked in the teeth & especially supporting the VILLA atm that’s quite possible.so I go for damage limitation psychologically.
The way I see it is Fulham are our main threat , however they need to win there final 2 games to survive and send us down .
I’m the same as most villa fans and don’t believe that we will pick up another point , the squad is piss poor and has fuck all left to offer , never mind that mumbling Scottish idiot calling the shots .
Markham, Fulham need to do that combined with one of the other options happening.
I just don’t see it mate, even though I think we’ll be incredibly lucky to stay up.
We’re the worst side in the Prem, imo.
Badger – be honest: the day we beat Chelsea did you expect that we’d be so deep in the brown stuff at this point in the season?
With six or seven games to go, we looked sure to pick up the three or four more points that we needed to reach 37 or 38 and virtually guarantee safety. What have we actually done – 1 ?
That’s why even though there need to be a whole permutation of results ‘against’ us in the next few games, I wouldn’t dare yet say we’re safe since these freak results can happen…
Of course, nothing would surprise me when it comes to the Villa and I totally accept it’s possible.
But it would have to be an utterly catastrophic combination of things that send us down.
Hopefully our luck will hold out though.
All I know is we won’t get another chance of survival next year, if things stay as they are mate.
Absolutely right.
Flirting with relegation for most of the last 4 seasons, if we escape this time and nothing changes we’ll be relegated by Christmas!
Newcastle will beat cardiff so thats them sorted. I think stoke will win or draw with fulham and chelsea will beat norwich so this weekend with those results will see us safe. So as soon as that happens lambert should be relieved of his duties. Im hoping this happens as if it goes to the final weekend we are screwed as our players aint got the balls to stand up and be counted
If there is a worse side than Villa in the division on current form it is Newcastle. The “Ship of Fools” tag has never looked more fitting. A shower of brainless gangling idiots without a rudder, and a goalkeeper who has now gone into shock. Newcastle v Cardiff isn’t a home banker- it will probably be decided by the referee.
It’s probably not but Cardiff are so awful, I’d be surprised if they can beat Newcastle, who’ve gone on holiday, losing 6 games in a row now.
Newcastle are the only team in the league I’d actually fancy us against they are shite. Can see pool stuffing them 7.0 last game of season maybe more
I’d say 4-5 to 0 for Liverpool. I’d agree though. They are terrible.
Easily 4-5.0. If they beat palace they have got a guaranteed 3 points to win the league.
Guaranteed 3 points, yes. To win the league? Possibly. City have a +8 GD on Liverpool, and are going to hammer us and… Well… Hammer the Hammers. And probably win 1-0/2-0 against Everton. Unfortunately for Pool, their loss to Chelsea looks like it could ruin them.
Remember they could pull that plus 8 back if city lose say 2.0 to Everton and they stuff Newcastle 6.0 which is doable. West ham are good at parking the bus though and so are we like we dud at home to city. Yes we were lucky but lets face it apart from their 2 goals they never really looked like scoring.
Agree OLL the only team in the league I’d actually tip even us to beat. They are woeful bet pool can’t believe they’ve got them at home last day b
Change of era Oohah for a moment. If you have the Villa programme v Stoke, there is a picture of the bus load of fans in 1982 in Sinferopol for the Dynamo Kiev game. To the left of the Litchfield flag in the light mac is Harry Lawrence (London Lions Chairman) and next to him is me.
Don’t buy programmes tbh OOL.
Newcastle won’t beat Cardiff they are effectively the worst team in the prem on current form. They have fuck all to play for and are on the beach they won’t give a toss
Eh to be fair, their defense is a disaster that only Marshall’s EPL quality (yes, I know they have Caulker, but he’s been worse than Baker this season, but a couple goals seems to have put over a lot of fans), and Remy at any time can score against Cardiff who are in fact garbage and probably worse than the worst Newcastle we’ve seen.
I can see Fulham and Sunderland getting 6 points, I really have a bad feeling about it happening…..
Safe on 35 points. The shame of it.
It’s how bad the EPL’s become. Everyone “big” EPL club fan claims this is the best league, but it’s far from. The bottom 9-10 are terrible.
Did MM say anything else??? Do u believe it?
#Moyes4AVFC #AVFC #Villa #AstonVilla
Good evening the #Moyes4AVFC was just to wake you up. It is NOT #Moyes who will be at #Villa Park next season but a much bigger name
The real story for #Villa is that the man ready to buy #AVFC is Larry Ellison the American Billionaire #ExcitingTimes
Larry Ellison worth $48 Billion that he made Randy Lerner $1.5 Billion his Dad made Ellison hates 2 lose Lerner is good at failure #AVFC
Is what he’s posted. I have no idea if it’s true, but it’s weird not to post anything since June 2012 and then randomly come back with complete bs. I’d like to think so.
Think it’s a load of tosh Andrew tbh things like that never happen to us. More likely to have Lerner and lamberk here next season I’m afraid
Disagree. Lambert talks like a man who won’t be here next season. Lerner’s two comments talk like an owner unlikely to be here next season as well. More likely to see someone new in, possibly not Ellison, but someone new. Klinsmann and Yakin’s names going around as possible new managers. Previous won’t happen but the latter would be brilliant.
Either of those names would be ok prefer kinsman as he will build a structure from top to bottom for us to launch ourselves forward. Yakin is another shoestring manager which smacks of no ambition and no money.
Yakin’s wanted by a lot of clubs who have decent budgets. But doesn’t smack of no ambition or no money, it smacks of quality football, trying out youth and going the way of say, Rodgers and Liverpool than City and Hughes/Mancini/Pellegrini. I’d take Yakin’s even if we had a City owner and spent 350m in one summer. He’s got huge potential, he has no problem bringing youth through, he’d make our youth better, he plays with great attacking flair and much like Rodgers does in attacking, and has out played multiple EPL clubs over the years. No money or a lot of money, he’s an incredible manager and we’d be fortunate to get him even with a huge amount of money to spend. We don’t need a big named manager. They tend to play boring football with huge egos which we just don’t need. We need a rebuilding term and Yakin’s is a perfect guy for that, and even like Rodgers, has the potential to be absolutely world class. Smacking of no money or ambition with him is complete nonsense.
Fair enough. Let’s just hope we get him with a load of money to spend 🙂
Have Villa fans actually watched the teams below us this season? They’ve been screwed from the get go and they haven’t put in the performances needed to stay up, somehow we have. Baffling why there’s so many “I can see these 2 teams pulling it off” on here (well not really, it’s not really a positive site). There’s only 1 team in the league that’s completely turned off already, and that’s Newcastle and while Cardiff might beat them, I’d be shocked. These clubs are terrible, they can’t even average a point a game, but they’re gonna pull 6 out of two games? Really… Stoke and Palace are both far better than Fulham who’s only goal threat is… Sidwell. Norwich are screwed and anyone who’s watched Cardiff, know they’re pretty much screwed as well. We’re staying up. Even if we lose all 3 games, we don’t lose points, so it doesn’t matter if we lose to Hull, it doesn’t make us go down simply because we lost to them, the other teams have to get results.
Tbf though who would have backed Sunderland to get 4 (nearly 6) points away to city and Chelsea.
I guess that’s true. They are playing well, and would be the team I’d back to stay up personally.
Andrew sorry fella but you obviously weren’t down VP v Fulham cause they played us off the park.
Their main threat Sidwell? If you were down you must have had one to many sherbets because Holtby was a cut above anything on the park, a class act and he ripped us to shreds.
Also mgath has never been relegated
Of course not, but then again I don’t get to live in England or I would’ve been. I did watch it however and realized Holtby can have a phenomenal game, but he doesn’t score, Sidwell’s their leading goal scorer and their only player that ever looks likely to do it was more my point. Holtby can create 100 chances but they have no one bar a CM to do the dirty work, because they won’t play Bent.
I think its between fulham and us for the last place, cardiff and norwich are gone imo as cardiff could beat newcastle but not chelsea norwich could beat arsenal but not both chelsea and arse but honestly i could see fulham beating both palace and stoke and that’s what im really afraid of because i think we will finish behind sunderland so its all down to fulham for me and im praying its them!
Agreed. The weekends fixtures will settle things.
Yes. We’ll be cheering on the trifecta: Cardiff, Norwich, Fulham draw or loss = safe on GD.
This season we have beaten Arsenal,Chelsea,Man city so anything can happen
Wouldn’t surprise me if we took a point of city tbh. I think they will effectively be out the race by then as can’t see them beating Everton away imo
Said the same thing about Palace, lol.
Everton’s defense is depleted, Barry can’t play. Effectively destroys their defense and City should definitely win. Pool will have the harder time v Palace than City v Everton.
We won’t get a point away to City, we’re gonna get rolled over.
Didn’t we all say city were going to thump us at VP. We will park the bus again and might get a 0.0. I was surprised how easy city won v palace though they are probably on the beach now. Still fancy pool for title Andrew been saying it for months so they should be palace but will be close.
I see City winning on GD. Unless Pool somehow take that away from City, but their defense is too poor to do that and I can see Palace getting a draw over Everton’s 2nd defense and no Barry being able to handle City. Especially as Arsenal are getting 4th now. Palace won’t be on the beach now, Pulis of all manager’s wouldn’t allow that.
Baines is fit and citys record at goodison is abysmal. Only won one game in last five and before not won since 92. Bit of a jinx ground for them like VP is for Chelsea. They may get a draw but il be amazed if they win. Agree re palace they will give it their all but can still see pool winning 2/3.1
Oh yeah forgot Barry is on loan lol
Yeah, and they have 3 really good midfielders and then a few decent ones at best.
Baines is fit, but that doesn’t make their defense solid enough. City’s attacking unit is too good for their CB’s and midfield and Lukaku’s not exactly been on an incredible run. Don’t think they have Mirallas either who’s their main creative unit. Can only see a City win.
Well they are favourites but that dosnt mean much these days. I think Everton will park the bus even though Martinez dosnt normally do it. Remember he beat them in cup final last year with a rubbish Wigan side so won’t be easy for city. I’m going 1.0 Everton.
You realize there’s only 4 teams this entire season to keep City out, right? Stoke, Sunderland, Chelsea and Barcelona. It’s highly highly unlikely a weaker Everton defense is going to keep out City. Gotta go with a 3-1 City win. It does depend on the Everton that shows up though. Is it the one that shows up like they did against United, or the Crystal Palace one? Either way, can’t see anything but City at 3-1.
That’s a good point if it’s the Everton that showed up at utd then they should get a result. Btw do you know what happens if 2 teams finish on exactly tge same points and goal diff. For example if city and pool finish on 84 points with exactly the same goals scored and conceded who would win tge league?
Isn’t it the team that’s scored the most?
Yes but for example if both teams hypothetically score a 100 goals each and concede 50 goals each then who wins league
Sorry mate never read that properly, the chances of that must be millions to one but I suppose then it’d go on head to head?
Ok head to head city beat pool 2.1 and pool beat city 3.2 lol
It’d be play off mate.
premierleague.com
“If two or more teams are equal on points, the winner is then determined by goal difference and then, if necessary, by the number of goals scored.
Where teams are equal on points, the number of goals scored and goal difference, there will be a play-off to determine the winner.
We do not look at the head-to-head record of individual teams.”
Ah thanks BWS I assume play of would be at wembley. I know in Spain they look at head to head but I wonder what happens if both games were 0.0 draws. Thanks BWS
A lot of people on here are writing teams off, based on their performances thus far, which is fair I suppose. But as you get to this stage of the season, you always get bizairre results. You get it because teams know that it’s life and death, it’s the crunch time and they can’t go missing. They are also playing against clubs who have half an eye on some tropical island somewhere.
That’s what i look at, what’s at stake for the club you’re facing, and mommentum\belief. Now the only team with momentum\belief in the bottom 5 is Sunderland, they have Man U (who they probably won’t beat) and two teams who are now effectively safe (West Brom & Swansea). i can definately see them getting 4 points from 3 games. They finish above us
Luckily Cardiff and Norwich are up against clubs who still have something to fight for, and not only that, they are quality, so i can’t see cardiff beating Chelsea, and Norwich beating anyone, but they are fighting for their lives so you never know.
Fulham have Stoke and Crystal Palace, two clubs who have been playing well, but ultimately have nothing to play for, so i can definately see them winning both.
Villa have the opposite of momentum and a lack of belief, but I’ve always felt that the majority of the players do try hard, and haven’t yet given up, it’s the quality they lack. I can see us losing all 3, and I can also see us winning against Hull and Spurs, it’s been that type of season, you never know which team are going to turn up.
This weekend coming I’ll hoping Stoke do us a favour, in my opinion, Sunderland will pass us easily, and Fulham are the only one of the other 3 clubs with a good chance of going past us.
Whatever happens, we need a change, i just hope that Lerner can sell. Just imagine if he can’t, and he’s left with even less incentive to invest money in the club, it doesn’t bear thinking about.
My last point is wages. I was explaining to my 8 year old that the owner of Villa doesn’t want to spend so much money on wages and so he’s recuited a load of players that are untried at this level. “So the wages are less”, yes I say, and then google to see if I can find out for sure where we are in the Premier league wages table. Well imagine my shock to find out that we are the 7th highest wages payer in the premier league. 7Th…..!!!! FFS.
Who the hell is costing so much? It’s the final mail in the coffin in my eyes for Lambert.
Good post hayks. I think some of our wage bill is carried over from the bomb squad and includes given and bent I think. Remember Benteke went up to £40k as well. One of Norwich’s games is v arsenal and they will have clinched 4th by then and Chelsea are all but out of title race as I still fancy pool to win that. So like u say u never know. Like you say whatever happens lambert Lerner and co just cannot be here next year. Let’s hope after the game on sat tge fans let their feelings known win lose or draw it dosnt matter we have to voice our concerns.
can i see that table of wage budgets? was it based on actual spends vs % of turnover? also does it take into account loan agreements where its possible we still pay the wages of the player but we have received a fee to cover it. ( in bents case, i am sure a sizeable one)
is it from this table .. because that was based on 2011-212 Accounts
I know we don’t have anything near a top 7 sides wage bill at this point.
Probably in the middle somewhere i would say 10th – 15th ..
bear in mind the likes of newcastle are paying sisoko 75k a week fulham were paying berbatov serious money too.
No I don’t buy it that we are anywhere near there anymore.
agbonlahor, nzogbia, benteke, Given are our biggest earners .. the rest are <30k i would say .
hutton, warnock, dunne, makoun, ireland, Bent, heskey, cuellar, Collins all 35k + some 50k+
either gone or loaned
replaced with the likes of bacuna, lowton, el ahmadi, bowery, helenius, vlaar, okore, luna, bennet, benteke, kozak,
majority all started below or around the 20k mark
Since 2011 the wage spend has only increased at clubs, If we were spending 70m then i would say we are around the 60m mark now.
I am sure that puts us in the bottom half, if my approximations are anyway accurate
this is the site, and you’re right, it wasn’t this season (12-13) so maybe we have fallen down the table
http://www.tsmplug.com/football/premier-league-player-salaries-club-by-club/
Ya that table makes no sense, i plugged them into excel got 19k avg and that was including Bents wages, which are either fully or partially paid by Fulham now.
We are a lot of awful things this season but one we are not is a club that sanctions high wages!
Sunderland will finish above us.. Norwich and Cardiff won’t..
NOT about this and that scenario.. it is simple IF we don’t beat Hull and Fulham beat Stoke away we are deep in it.. probably looking down the barrell..
It all hinges on the Stoke Fulham game.. simples.
Fully agreed I’ll be keeping closer tabs on the stoke game more than the VILLA which I already expect to lose very sad indeed. 🙁
cardiff / norwich / villa / bet tenner 25/1 wins you 260 pounds
Cardiff Norwich and Fulham are favourites to go down. Mainly coz of our gd
That could be increased when we play city even if city have an off day.
I can’t see us going down I really can’t
We’ll certainly have a better idea Saturday evening MATE.
Stop fretting lads…..I KNOW we WILL win on Saturday. Its all a cunning ploy to make us drink more 🙂 (and by fuck its working)!
We will NOT be relegated
Fuck off Lambert AND Lerner, the Villa is OURS
Look on the bright side the scum lost and charlton won and bayern experienced what it’s like to be a villa fan !!
It looked like Baker and Clark at the back for Bayern….terrible defending 🙂
Yep that’s the trouble with guardiola teams once they meet a team with 2 backs of 4 in front of them who don’t commit or dive in they are screwd. 2 games with RM and not once did they look like scoring. Guardiola got away with it a bit more at barca mainly because of Messi and tge fear factor. But teams like Chelsea Sussed them out and they have no plan B
If fulham beat Stoke and we don’t beat Hull I think we are down. Sunderlands goal difference will be better than ours come the end of the season. Man City and spurs could be a cricket score with our defending.
For me Norwich and Cardiff are gone. It is between us and Fulham for the last relegation place.
And lets face it if we go down we would have got only 1 or 2 points from our last 9 games so will deserve to go down.
Happy Days !!!!
Could be right. Plus Mcgath has never been relegated
neither has Lambert we need some positive thoughts now positive we will get something against hull and positives that Lambert and Lerner fall on there swords and leave at the end of the season
I am positive for the first time for a long time, we will scrape a draw against Hull…. Or even beat Spurs… As soon as we feel Lambert is out the door he conjures up a fluke result and we only need a draw, then Lerner will be told by the fat twat Faulkner he is a God and we will be stuck with him for another year.
This is one of the better threads for a while.
It’s brought a smile to my face, some of the quotes are comedy gold…
…”Fulham are safe”.
“Other than their two goals, Citeh didn’t look like scoring”.
“It’s the time of the season that you get strange results”. (Like a Villa home win ?!?
Keep it coming lads.
We’re 10/1 for relegation, I think that’s quite skinny. I can see us finishing as we are, more than capable of losing all three, but we are not going to be passed by two below us.
Desperate stuff though, when all’s said and done.
“Fulham are safe” thats comedy genius although spookily enough the only time this season they have won 2 on the trot is against Norwich and The Villa…. now that would be ironic..
Agree city will be effectively out tge race when we play them as they will lose to Everton. Like u say in a way wev more chance of beating city than hull if that makes sense
Someone’s desperate for Liverpool to win the league, make a bet? Everton aren’t gonna beat City mate.
i like to get that 10/1 cos i could only find 8/1 villa to go down ~ i personally think we will scape through by hook or crook, my mate is a serious gambler and he claims villa will beat hull and stoke will beat fulham, but iam not so confident but hes usually spot on.
Fulham are clearly safe, 2 incredibly easy games they’ll walk over and win without a care. I swear I remember reading they had 3 easy games and yet again failed to win… But they’re safe, it’s okay.
no games are easy 🙁 and fulham have no room for error, if body language is anything 2 go by they looked shot to pieces, at the final whistle against hull tigers.
It was sarcasm. Basically going off what a lot of people claim on here. They won’t stay up, as I’ve claimed before, they can’t score, Sidwell’s their goal scoring threat (and before corrected again, Holtby doesn’t score near enough despite being a threat in creating). I’m quite confident we’ll stay up myself.
Look on the bright side…
PL had 2 years with Norwich.
2010 = promotion and manager of the year.
2011 = promotion and manager of the year.
i amazed that nobody has pointed to the fact, darren bent remains at fulham when it seems a straight fight between us2, it would be a right kick in the stones, if he suddenly found some form and help um 2 win the last 2 games. is it worth saving wages on him and risking him sending us down??
I suppose it’s a blessing in disguise that stokes playing at home as there SHITE on the road unless there playing in the B6 region of Birmingham.