Monaco – Villa: Will this be the one where we qualify?

I know nothing about French football. I should say that from the off. I also have very little interest in the Champion’s league normally, because I find it frankly boring, with practically the same teams involved every year.

But obviously, I’m taking more notice this year and have been watching the games.

I’ve come to the conclusion that while some sides are very good, it seems to me that many are overhyped. Or is it just that we’ve excelled in our previous qualifiers? It’s a very subjective thing, but I don’t think we’ve looked very good in our games, the Bayern one apart. Mind you, I don’t think we’ve looked very good for most of the season, but the reality is we’re still very much in the mix.

That’s not to say I think Monaco are rubbish. I don’t think much of Ligue 1, a few teams apart but they do have a few decent sides, of which Monaco appear to be one. They’re a very young side, the third youngest in their league, but reading around tells me they’re very tenacious. They’ve made the most tackles, ball recoveries and second-most interceptions of any team in the French top flight. They’re also fourth in the table. So definitely no mugs then, although I should probably add that they’ve been on a poor run of late.

Hence it would seem it’s by no means going to be easy. My lack of European football knowledge makes it a bit tricky to give an opinion, but I can have a guess or just give my feelings.

And while I don’t want to jinx us, I do think we can get something from this game. A win wouldn’t make us mathematically certain to qualify automatically, but it would put us in a very strong position and however you look at it, that would be some achievement.

A draw obviously wouldn’t be as good, but you’d have to think that with our last game being Celtic at home, we would still be in with a very good chance

And that’s what I’m going for.

We always look like we’re going to concede, although it seems we’re looking to address this weakness, with a young full back, Andreas Garcia announced as having been signed from Levante just this morning and a central defender being in the offing who will replace Diego Calos who is apparently going to Fenerbache, if Wolves can’t persuade him to join them.

Squad news and John McGinn remains out with injury. He’s also looking doubtful for the Celtic game. Amadou Onana limped off against Arsenal on Saturday and is also very doubtful. Ross Barkley and Pau Torres are both injured and Diego Carlos is suspended, which is probably academic anyway, if he is indeed off to Turkiye. New signing Donyell Malen isn’t eligible.

As for Monaco, it’s all a bit vague but from what I can see, they have several players coming back from injury or illness, with Denis Zakaria, as well as Aleksandr Golovin who was ill, Christian Mawissa and Wilfried Singo all available and it appears they’re practically at full strength.

So if Monaco are going to get one goal, logically we’re also going to get one. In which case, could it be Duran who gets it? My guess is yes he will. The big question there is will he start or come on as sub?

Either way, that’s my prediction. A 1-1 draw.

UTV!

135 Comments

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  1. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 January 22, 2025 at 2:34 pm . Reply

    Bailey is a busted flush.

    As the great Bill Shankly once perceptively asked – ‘is he a great player having a good game, or a good player having a great game’

    In Bailey’s case he’s a not very good player back to his average standard after one stand out season. No time to get rid now but he has to go in the summer.

    I don’t want to see Bailey anywhere near the team; Malen must start Saturday and Ramsey on Wednesday – if McGinn not fit then give Bogarde a chance alongside Kamara, Tielemans moved forward and Rogers back in the centre – he’s wasted out wide.

    My team for Saturday – Martinez, Cash (who again put a shift in last night), Konsa, Mings, Digne, Kamara, Bogarde, Tielemans, Malan, Rogers, Watkins

    That all assumes Onana is still on his sick note!

    1. Holte
      Holte January 22, 2025 at 3:50 pm . Reply

      Good call Hitch. Same team that I would pick against West Ham. I don’t think Emery will start Bogarde or Malen but hope to be surprised.
      Cash, Buendia and Digne were our best players last night. Question is why do we need two defensive midfielders against lesser teams? Kamara is good enough to cope in front of the back 4 with Tielemans and Buendia threading passes to Watkins, Rogers and Malen (hopefully)
      I hope we go for the throat at full throttle rather than the slow let’s get into our stride approach.

  2. BFR
    BFR January 22, 2025 at 5:26 pm . Reply

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoiOXhW6IQk

    Must see Unai’s post-match interview:

    – Scathing of the set pieces. MacPhee must have been cringing and hanging his head.
    – Full of praise for Buendia.
    – Strong hints that some players are not following his instructions.
    – Admitted he got it wrong with two strikers.

    Fair play – can’t argue with that.

    1. OLL again
      OLL again January 22, 2025 at 10:48 pm . Reply

      He said Villa did not follow the plan, then name-checked all those who did, leaving us to sieve the guilty. Bailey, Watkins, Duran, Maatsen and Digne! A bit hard on Digne.
      At the fateful corner we line up for an in-swinger even though the taker is coming sideline side of the pole. The out-swinger floors us.

  3. BFR
    BFR January 22, 2025 at 5:28 pm . Reply

    Oh wow, I’m watching the post-match and Unai is pissed.

    1. BFR
      BFR January 22, 2025 at 5:30 pm . Reply

      When asked if he can elaborate on who’s not following, he just points to his head – mentality. He’s not a happy chappy. Full respect for admitting several times that he got it wrong with the two strikers.

      1. BFR
        BFR January 22, 2025 at 6:30 pm . Reply

        Who do we think he’s referring to? Bailey, perhaps?

        Oh and apparently Rogers was ill, which explains the substandard performance.

        1. Hitchens60
          Hitchens60 January 22, 2025 at 9:05 pm . Reply

          It seems Barkley was also ill.

          It’s easy to criticise without the full facts.

          1. BFR
            BFR January 23, 2025 at 5:08 am . Reply

            True.

  4. Gerry
    Gerry January 22, 2025 at 6:50 pm . Reply

    Fingers crossed that Shakhtar hold on to their 2-0 half time lead against Brest. Brest will overtake us if they were to win

    1. Bill Pearson
      Bill Pearson January 22, 2025 at 9:14 pm . Reply

      I look at it this way ,Unai again made a bad choice in players and yet he’s the saviour of our club , I have seen my beloved club climb back from oblivion and large gates back at the ground. Only he knows why things go wrong and I’m sure he will get it right. I don’t think Unai was in the best of health be honest and certainly Rodgers wasn’t, so why did it take so long for Ramsey to come on knowing that. I firmly believe he needs to take a look at our coaching staff and change our way of defending, most of the goals are from our wings and long balls over the players. I still believe in Unai and things will improve under him .

  5. 1874 was a good year
    1874 was a good year January 22, 2025 at 7:44 pm . Reply

    Well Brest got stuffed by Shaktar and Sporting Lisbon lost away to Leipzig who, until today, hadn’t racked up a single point.
    CL away fixtures are no pushover whoever it is you play.

  6. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 January 22, 2025 at 9:06 pm . Reply

    Whatever the results tonight it’s a simple equation – beat Celtic and we’ll be in the top 8

  7. Gerry
    Gerry January 22, 2025 at 10:05 pm . Reply

    Hitch, I hope your right but I dont see that. We are 9th at the moment’ If we beat Celtic 1-0 (for example) Monaco winning 3-0 or Lille or Brest winning 4-0 would put them above us. And teams in 5,6,7,8 one of them has to lose. Please correct me if I am wrong

    1. 1874 was a good year
      1874 was a good year January 22, 2025 at 10:10 pm . Reply

      Well anything can happen and it probably will. Fully expected Bayern to overtake us and they get stuffed 3-0. We’re in the conversation for the top eight with one game to go which is still great going.

    2. Hitchens60
      Hitchens60 January 23, 2025 at 7:46 am . Reply

      Fair points but Monaco beating Juventus away 3-0 would rank as a major upset.

      Maybe I should have said – beating Celtic is our only chance of finishing in the top 8.

      If we don’t teams 9th to 16th are seeded and play first legs away. Team 9 plays team 24 and so on. It risks us having to play teams like PSG or Citeh in the play off round!

  8. Bum Bum
    Bum Bum January 22, 2025 at 10:17 pm . Reply

    Right. The way the results went tonight, PROVIDING we beat Celtic, Atalanta and Athletico both have potentially tough away fixtures as their last game, Atalanta’s is at Barcelona! I’d say they are the vulnerable ones in the top 8. Better one of their final results and it’s automatic qualification for us.
    Leverkusen host Sparta Prague who are already out but may snatch something for the sake of pride.
    Now we just have to beat Celtic. Play like last night and we’ve no chance…It’s completely achievable.

  9. little8
    little8 January 22, 2025 at 10:18 pm . Reply

    Win by 3 we’ve a great chance otherwise 9th could see us face citeh gonna be a nervy last day

    1. OLL again
      OLL again January 22, 2025 at 10:28 pm . Reply

      That is correct. Probably win by 2 is enough. Most of the teams around us have easy games against the dungeon dwellers. Barca could do us a favour if they don’t field the stiffs against Atalanta – but that is just what they usually do.

  10. Gerry
    Gerry January 22, 2025 at 10:47 pm . Reply

    In an amazing coincidence the four team that could overtake us are playing each other. I am adding Fayenoord who need to win 4-0

    1. OLL again
      OLL again January 22, 2025 at 11:19 pm . Reply

      There are more than 4 teams who could overtake us if we lose and have 13 pts.
      On 13pts Bayer L, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, on 12 Borussia MG, Bayern M, Real M, Juve, Celtic, on 11 PSV, Brugge, Benfica, PSG.

  11. Gerry
    Gerry January 22, 2025 at 11:27 pm . Reply

    The assumption was always that we beat Celtic 1-0

  12. Badger123
    Badger123 January 23, 2025 at 6:40 am . Reply

    Villa are back in the revenue top 20, with growth of 27% to 310 mill euro.
    Heck’s policies may be unpopular, but they’re certainly effective;

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250122533032/en

    1. Hitchens60
      Hitchens60 January 23, 2025 at 7:49 am . Reply

      Just read that Badger.

    2. BFR
      BFR January 23, 2025 at 10:07 am . Reply

      Which basically means he’s doing his job properly.

  13. Bum Bum
    Bum Bum January 23, 2025 at 8:39 am . Reply

    Bottom line: We have to beat Celtic. Three teams above us could slip up. I can’t see all 3 of them winning.

    Really annoying considering we could have got something at Monaco, had a winner disallowed with Juve, and dropped a point because of Mings costly error…We’d be in the top three!!!

  14. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 January 23, 2025 at 10:57 am . Reply

    Confirmed Carlos to Fenerbahce – wish him well. He didn’t have the best of fortune at Villa with the serious injury just after he joined.

    Apart from glimpses we never really saw his best form.

    Have to assume Villa are confident of signing a replacement as to have only two fit CB’s for the next couple of months is not just risky, it’s suicidal.

    1. Bum Bum
      Bum Bum January 23, 2025 at 11:45 am . Reply

      Gotta say he did put in some MONSTER shifts. I remember at The Emirates last year he was ****ing awesome!
      Good luck Carlos!!!!!!! Thanks for everything!

      So that’s another £10M in the pot to spend??? Loic Bade seems to be off the boil. Seville holding out for too much cash, but I don’t blame them!!!! Far too much money floating around the EPL.

    2. 1874 was a good year
      1874 was a good year January 23, 2025 at 11:54 am . Reply

      I would guess that this means that Bade might be on the way in. I read that Monchi wouldn’t sanction the Carlos deal until he was sure of a replacement which makes sense.
      If that’s right then it would be the best January window I can remember.

  15. Badger123
    Badger123 January 23, 2025 at 11:57 am . Reply

    That’s a lot of money lost on Carlos, but I’m guessing a very fat wage off the books too.
    I wish him well and it’s a shame he was so up and down.

    I’ve just read that we’re making Seville sweat re a Bade deal. The big question is who’s the more desperate and you’d probably guess we are, but don’t forget we have the new fullback, who can probably do a job or the young Turkish defender (Ozcan?), but neither would be ideal.

    1. Hitchens60
      Hitchens60 January 23, 2025 at 12:49 pm . Reply

      Badger, Carlos joined for (reputed) fee of £26m on a four year contract in May 2022 so only a year left.

      By my calculation, on an amortised basis, he’s currently in the books at £6.5m so, by selling him for a reputed €10m (£8.5m) we actually make a book profit of £2m in the current financial year.

      I agree the bigger upside is on his wages which are reputed to be £100k per week and that’s where the real loss has been!

  16. BFR
    BFR January 23, 2025 at 12:27 pm . Reply

    John Townley on X:
    “Ollie Watkins has been involved in 99 Premier League goals in 168 appearances for Aston Villa. If he scores or assists vs West Ham, he’ll be the fastest player to 100 G/A since Kevin De Bruyne in July 2020 and fastest Englishman since Harry Kane in November 2017.”

    In other words, leave Ollie alone!

    1. Bum Bum
      Bum Bum January 23, 2025 at 2:49 pm . Reply

      Hear! Hear!

      Although I do wish he’d polish up on his finishing a bit. Confidence?

      1. BFR
        BFR January 23, 2025 at 2:56 pm . Reply

        Me too, mate. There’s an awful lot of room for improvement, despite the excellent numbers.

      2. BFR
        BFR January 23, 2025 at 2:58 pm . Reply

        I don’t think it’s confidence; I get the impression that he’s a perfectionist who puts far too much pressure on himself. This reduces the effectiveness of any striker because it inhibits instinct, which is a key ingredient to a class finisher. In short, he overthinks it when he shouldn’t be thinking at all.

  17. BFR
    BFR January 23, 2025 at 12:28 pm . Reply

    Also on X:
    “No player has completed more take-ons in the Champions League this season than Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers (26).”

    Bodes well.

  18. Badger123
    Badger123 January 23, 2025 at 1:01 pm . Reply

    I don’t doubt those figures for Ollie and they’re good.
    But they could have been miles better. That’s the expectation from an England striker.

    As for Rogers, it fascinates me that some fans really don’t rate him!
    But that’s the beauty of the game and opinions 🙂

    1. Bum Bum
      Bum Bum January 23, 2025 at 2:52 pm . Reply

      Agreed, although he had a bit of a stinker on Wednesday, but he was confirmed as being ill, so full credit to the guy.
      Just saw Emery’s post match press conference. Wow!!! Was he angry or what!!!!!
      Also gotta say, the results really went in our favour last night. Instead of waiting for one team to drop points next week, we could have been waiting for 5!!!

  19. Bill Pearson
    Bill Pearson January 23, 2025 at 6:17 pm . Reply

    Bum bum , if he knew Rodgers was ill why did he risk playing him? Ramsey wasn’t subbed until the till the last 10 minutes or less. I know it seems I’m having a go at Rodger but a lot of games he’s been shocking. Problem with me if I see players hiding i constantly watch in all games. As for Unai he was ill you could see it in him , he had that bug that I had recently.

    1. Bum Bum
      Bum Bum January 24, 2025 at 3:30 pm . Reply

      Because an ill Chesty is better than the alternative. Our bench looks thin.

  20. Holte
    Holte January 23, 2025 at 7:58 pm . Reply

    Any truth in Al Nassr preparing €100m bid for Duran? If it is true and we can get a loan striker for backup to Ollie, then I would be okay with it.
    Loic Bade doesn’t look like he will be coming as a replacement CB for Carlos. It seems he doesn’t want to be sat on the bench behind Konsa.
    Egg on faces for our recruitment if we are left with only two fit CB’s come the end of January! Unbelievable that we have allowed ourselves to be held to ransom with clubs knowing our situation and the sense of desperation we have created for ourselves.

    1. BFR
      BFR January 23, 2025 at 8:18 pm . Reply

      Bogarde in defence as worst case. Probably means season over. No disrespect to the youngster – just not ready yet, in my opinion.

    2. Badger123
      Badger123 January 23, 2025 at 8:37 pm . Reply

      I don’t believe that one. In fact I don’t see we’ll let him go at all this late.
      The summer, where we’ll have a replacement lined up, would be a different story.

      I very much doubt we’ll only be left with 2 CBs either.

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