While I still remain confident about the Villa, I think the logical stance is that it’s going to be a big ask that we’re going to beat Leeds and Norwich while Albion lose to Derby too.
Which means overtaking the Baggies looks doubtful, although still not impossible.
Derby might well beat Swansea away and Albion at home, which means they can overtake us, if we lose our remaining two games.
Why did I think we were guaranteed 5th place as we stand? So much for that “O” level maths.
For clarity, if you don’t know already, third place plays sixth place and fourth place plays fifth place in the play-offs.
My mind is blown, given the myriad of options, but it looks to me like we face the Albion and Leeds face Derby.
I’d take us to do the Albion over two legs, although it would by no means be easy.
Leeds-Derby is also a tough call, but I’d plump for Leeds, which means we’d face them in the final.
Which all in all makes tomorrow a game that we should try to win.
While losing to them tomorrow wouldn’t be the end of the world, it would give them a psychological edge and we don’t want that.
Beating them on their own turf means we’d have the edge, obviously.
Squad news and it’s looking pretty good for us.
Gianji Alioski, who did well against us in the last meeting, is out for the season with a torn meniscus.
Kemar Roofe, Leeds’ top scorer, is also out with a hip problem.
Tammy and Hause are still out, but we know we have decent back up and Tuanzebe is available.
Dean Smith has hinted that he won’t play a weakened side and I fully expect Grealish and McGinn to start and I don’t see more than the odd change happening.
So while I remain fully confident, unless we’re going to win fifteen games on the trot, the winning streak continues to concern me.
I think I’d prefer us to drop that and instead maintain our unbeaten run.
Where maybe a draw would keep me happy.
Except I see a few goals in an open game, meaning a draw is unlikely.
I’m drawing a deep breath, but I’m going for yet another win.
2-1 to us.