I know some of you have already started discussing it, but I can’t miss writing this up as a post, because it’s so important.
Corona is making all the headlines and as we all know, it’s led to football in England being suspended for three weeks.
There was obviously no choice but to do this and it’s the right choice, although I don’t believe it goes anywhere near far enough and is mostly a panic reaction, to try and see how things pan out.
The only problem is that from what I’ve read, Corona virus in the UK is predicted to probably peak out in about fourteen weeks. Ie, the middle of June.
I’m not going to be quite as pessimistic as that, as my pure layman’s guess is that this will prove to be very flu-like and start to peter out come late April or early May.
Not that it matters much.
Either way, I don’t believe for one minute that we’ll be able to restart footy in three weeks time.
Which is where I’ve heard a few options.
The first is that the league is frozen as it is and the season is over, meaning the current positions stand.
That quite simply isn’t going to happen, as the bottom three clubs, us included, would just sue the Premier league for loss of revenue.
Then there’s the possibility that we drag the season into the summer and start next season later.
I can’t see that working, given the amount of moaning the managers do about too many games.
And then there’s the option of playing games behind closed doors, which has massive implications for revenue and sponsorship.
While this is probably the most unpopular of those options, it would seem to me that it’s the only way to go and I can’t see what the league were thinking in suspending the league.
Of course, you have the players and staff to consider, but I would have thought you could have had a situation where they would be tested for Corona on say Tuesday and Friday and if found to be negative, they’re ok to play.
But then, what if one of the outfit tests positive? They’re bound to pass it to the others?
Hmm, I’m flummoxed unless any of you have better suggestions.
The more I think about it, the more I think the season should just be abandoned.
I think Germany has considered this and the teams in the current promotion positions get promoted into an extended league above.
But there will surely be litigation all over the place here, with the likes of restriction of trade.
Abandonment would suit us beautifully, but we ain’t that lucky.
I can see football’s dilemma, but without trying to get political, I don’t think the government has helped.
The advice is that you stay two metres away from other people if possible.
Yet they haven’t banned crowds, which just makes the suggestion a joke.
Either the whole country should be in total lockdown and we let business rant and rave about it or we just leave things entirely, so the virus plays out at it’s own pace and we get it over and done with quicker.
But then, our NHS that can’t cope with a normal winter, goes into total meltdown.
Blimey, what a mess.
No wonder I’ve got the feeling that even the Government haven’t got a clue what to do and are absolutely terrified of what might happen.
I just don’t understand the three weeks.
It can only be a bit of thinking time, I suppose.
The mass hysteria is completely illogical. Worldwide coronavirus deaths are 5000. Worldwide flu deaths are 656,000 EVERY year. And the symptoms are more severe. Yet nothing closes down, nothing stops. Everything continues as
normal. Politicians and media need to stop spreading panic.
The swine flu pandemic killed 1.25 million world wide but I don’t remember this sort of mass hysteria.
And why are we predicting something like 40 million being infected in the UK with deaths around 250,000 when in China the epidemic appears to have plateaued at about 900,000 infections with 3,000 deaths in a country of 1.2 billion give or take a few hundred thousand?
Hitch, I suspect it’s because we’re now much more global than even 10 years ago.
That and I think it suits the markets to have some kind of major correction, as things have become totally overblown in some countries, the US in particular.
You’re not the only one who believes conspiracy theories 🙂
Spanish flu killed between 17m and 50m people in 1918 (depending on the calculations you believe) Most seem to accept a figure over 25m. Mass flow of injured or ill soldiers through field hospitals, general under nourishment and poor sanitary conditions all contributing.
Read Dan Brown’s Inferno – now that truly is scary.
Johnar, here’s something I borrowed from $ky news;
“Although the WHO says the true death rate for COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the current data it has so far, suggests the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%.
It says the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower.
For seasonal flu, it is usually well below 0.1%, but a big factor is the quality of health care available for some patients (in different parts of the world).”
If the true mortality rate is 3 – 4% then it’s worse even than Spanish Flu where the mortality rate was calculated at around 2% and worse than any previous declared pandemic (I think there has been three or maybe four, including Spanish Flu).
Treating this more seriously is the right thing to do. It’s much more infectious than flu. It’s much more damaging to the lungs than regular flu. If the infection rate proves correct, then the NHS beds will be past breaking point. The plan in a nutshell is for us all to get it, to build up herd immunity so it doesn’t return, but over a longer period of time so the NHS can treat those who need it.
Imagine you break you leg but can’t get an ambulance or treatment because staff are ill or busy? They’re fending off avoidable deaths. Best be safe than sorry!
I don’t think closing down outside events is required, but the government are just bowing to pressure just in case.
season looks like it could be over, with loads of loose ends still to be resolved. villa if i am honest looked deep in the water against Leicester. and if the season had continued even with two mcginns. we looked all but gone officially . pool look all but champs officially . even norwich still had a chance and they were very much still fighting to the end.
the conclusion to the season might never get resolved ? who knows when a virus runs its course. the date set to resume football might have to be delayed even further. so there is a good chance this season might end with so many unresolved issues.
one thing is certain i have now more free time over the weekends 🙂 and less stress. see you all in a few weeks or next season
It’s a massive problematic situation this, a lot of companies are going to go bust over it, in fact its on the news now, I can only see that the FA calls for status Quo till its seen to be safe to carry on. But that won’t help little clubs. Footballers will still want their money , advertisement will not be paid to clubs , so sport will suffer. What’s the answer to it I haven’t a clue, but its serious matter,
An interesting point raised is – what will happen in respect of TV revenue?
Yes, it’s an interesting one, this and it’s part of the reason that I don’t understand the 3 week suspension.
The EPL will be contracted to supply so many games a season and are surely in breech if they don’t?
Hence the decision must have been made with a view to having the games later.
But as I’ve said, I don’t see how that can possibly work, if you want crowds there, because Covid won’t have even neared a peak.
There’s another meeting later in the week and you can bet all sorts will be frantically trying to find a solution.
Agreed Badger. If you use the evidence from China it seems from first reported cases to peak is about 12 – 15 weeks although we know that China initially suppressed the information.
I like it Sid, what Villa fan wouldn’t, it’s plausible and no arguments from us, keeping Grealish? I’m at an opinion he’s gone ,unless the Fa says otherwise. News spreads fast already getting calls saying what you’ve intermated, I hope it comes that way.
I have a conspiracy theory which is that world governments have spied an opportunity to dry run their contingency plans should a really serious (like a 25% mortality rate across all ages) break out. Through this they can measure social, business and economic effects and the operational effectiveness of public services in a real time scenario!
I’m not sure who is being protected by closing schools given that (unusually) it appears that children are not significantly affected by the virus. So schools close and parents look where for child minding – grandparents – many of whom are in the ‘high risk’ category! I’ll leave others to decide what the thinking is behind that!
Sorry that has nothing to do with footy – apologies to Badger for sort of drifting tangentially to the subject! 🙂
Anyway getting back to football – given the possible impact on European competitions will all the main leagues (England / Spain / Italy etc.) agree on a single, coordinated strategy for this season?
Hithchens60 Yes I saw those Sky figures too.
I’ve got covid-flu stats coming out my ears and whichever way I compare them I come back to the same conclusion.
We are being submitted to hysterical, unnecessary, panic measures. It is completely illogical to do this for Covid-19 but not for the much more serious, killer influenza.
What happened to that great British standby, ‘Keep calm and carry on.’
Seems its been changed to ‘Panic and stop everything.’
Now they are saying that Covid-19 is going to return every year. Great !
Here’s another thought.
After WW2 Germany was made to pay £trillions in reparations for the carnage it had caused. Shouldn’t China be made to do the same ? A lot of small clubs and businesses will go out of existance without any revenue coming in.
Anyway – football.
What is going to happen to the season ? There is no solution that will make everyone happy. It may be a case of choosing the least worst option.
1. Cancel everything and start again next season.
(Tell that to the teams who are up for promotion.)
2. Play the games in the summer.
(They are saying Covid-19 will be at its peak about then.)
3. Play behind closed doors.
(Managers and players will still be mixing with each other and then with
family and public.)
4. Get the football pools panel to sit and decide results.
(Would they have picked Watford 3 Liverpool 0 ?)
5 Cancel the season. No relegation. Current top two teams in each division
promoted then two extra relegations next season. Good for the Villa !
6. Stop panicking and carry on as normal.
(My favourite. But it aint gonna happen.)
Whatever happens, it is going to create a gigantic mess and probably a huge payday for lawyers everywhere.
We could playing catch up for years and we’ve got the World Cup in Qatar in two years, Is that being played in our Winter ?
Apparently – Covid-19 will just get absorbed into the range of Corona virus we already have – the common cold and the flu being the most common. I suspect we will move into vaccination territory for the vulnerable.
I totally agree with you on the way the ‘world’ is reacting – it seems bizarre and as I’m in the ‘high risk’ group I’m not speaking from a position of relative safety.
Anyway, as a pensioner, if I’m out of pocket I’m sending a bill to Boris as apparently ‘no one should be (financially) disadvantaged for doing the right thing’ 🙂 🙂
{Edited by Badger, just to try and keep the thread simpler to read}
I don’t have any different ideas to those already stated. I’m trying to pretend that It’s the cricket season when I have no interest in sport till August. And my opinion FWIW is that it could be till at least then before football starts again.
It’s really tough to take but I think the obvious reason is to keep the numbers down on Coronavirus whilst it’s the flu season and also in the rush to find a vaccine. 3-4% mortality rate is frightening and with an elderly mother with health issues, I think we should put their health as priority over our football fix.
Greenpeace will be delighted that planes not flying will combat emissions anyway! I’m guessing my holiday abroad this year won’t be happening ☹️
Holte, as someone who likes at least 3 holidays a year, I’m wondering where I’ll go next and how.
My mom’s elderly, but fortunately in good nick.
I’m now wondering if it’s a good idea for me to visit her on Mother’s day, as she is naturally normally fairly isolated, in that she spends most of her time alone at home, whereas I’m in contact with dozens of people every day.
Very worrying.
Guys – Barbados is still open for business!
Not anymore Hitch. 600 on cruise ship stranded off Barbados. Just been told I’ve to stop in for 4 months. ..this virus is hand made to me, China playing around with germ warfare and its gone wrong..
Difficult one – visiting your mom. I listened to a Professor who models infectious diseases. He said we should behave as if we are infected and don’t want to pass it on – most sensible bit of advice I’ve heard. Not sure that helps though with your dilemma,
Exactly my thoughts, Hitch.
I’m now seeing scientific advisors are saying the govt are taking a “laissez fare” approach to Corona,
I’m now of the opinion that we should go for a total lockdown for two weeks and stop this stone dead.
Basically ban any movement.
My mum is 86 and has diabetes and other conditions. I’m going to steer clear and see how things pan out. I’m trying to persuade my dad to stay in the house and let me internet shop for their food.
This virus seems particularly infectious. It is also expected to mutate and that’s going to make getting an effective vaccine difficult. I get that most people will survive it but it’s horrible for those who won’t.
I’m not sure of the lockdown thing. There will still be undetected infections and it will just flare up again. It seems like our government wants to smooth out that process but it’s a big gamble.
Comparisons with earlier pandemics are difficult. The internet and social media means that there is more “news” and opinion than you can possibly assimilate. It’s no wonder people are panicking.
DS, I believe I’ve read that diabetes is one of the big risks, but I’m not going to say any more than that, as I think I’ve only read it in passing.
The experts are now saying that you shouldn’t even go for a walk if you can’t guarantee staying metres away from anyone else.
I think we are all a little nervous of the unknown. Likewise I don’t know whether my mom would be better if I didn’t visit but living on her own means she needs company. Knowing what to do for the best is the issue. We are in uncharted waters and the only winners right now are hand sanitizer producers and toilet roll manufacturers.
And online deliverers.
Occado has stopped taking new customers!
Guys, before lock down, get to Aldi. Cases of Corona beer on special offer! You can guess the rest!!! 😁
Sod it, I’m sent to prison in my own house now, Daughter and kids saying don’t go out, are everybody going nuts, or is their more to this than meets the eye.
So is this a China designed virus to rid the world of the elderly?
I’m more in the camp that everyone is going nuts and me and the wife are not going to be ‘imprisoned’ by anyone. That doesn’t mean to say that we are ignoring sensible precautions but no way are we going to stay at home for x months.
Kids are supporting us in our decision – we work together as a family.
But what about those 70+ year olds without family – who is going to support them? A society more interested in panic buying and stocking up to the detriment of the elderly or the most vulnerable in case they might have to self isolate for 7 days with a modest case of the virus?
Bill, this is not nuts and your family is right to be worried.
There is a severe risk to the elderly.
But from what it’s SEEMS, the elderly who have other problems , particularly lung-wise, are massively at risk.
I’d suggest that if you’re healthy, you would probably be ok, but even so, resistance to this type of thing wanes as we age.
I’d suggest you go along with the advice as much as you can possibly put up with.
Which is a reasonable stance, given that you can’t expect to be cooped up for months on end.
Hitch, I agree with you about panic buying. It’s disgraceful.
There’s a shop down the road from me charging £5.99 for a hand sanitiser that you can get for a quid in Poundland and isn’t normally much more elsewhere.
That sounds like profiteering to me and people should be locked up for it, imo.
There is some good news.
Free TV licenses for the over 75’s has been extended till August (I think it was), if you can stand the crap that’s on TV.
Just stay safe chaps.
Saw a really interesting take on YouTube on what the Government are trying to do which has converted me to a more reasoned approach.
I still don’t understand the ‘worst case scenarios’ as against the ‘evidence’ coming out of China.
We are going to take sensible precautions but there is a balance for older (don’t call any of us elderly) people to take. We are in a good position compared to – for example – those older people living alone in small apartments who depend on their regular social interaction for their sanity.
Tbf the Government are making recommendations rather than imposing bans / isolation periods which I believe will be welcomed by most.
Now perhaps the panic buying, hoarding, selfish individuals – many of whom are not at any real risk from this virus – will take note of those in our communities trying to help the older and more vulnerable in our society; but I’m not holding my breath.
PS – some of our family that attended Crufts notes that the vast majority of hand sanitisers provided by the organisers were actually stolen by attendees! Need Ai say more?
Badger I dread the thought of being cooped up for months with my Mrs, God I’ve done well being with her for 63 years, mind you shes a Goodun, yes your right, take heed of the family and stay safe. I’ve still got my hundreds of plants to talk too at my allotment.
Bill, my missus has already provided me with a list of jobs to do that I’d been putting off – some of them for years – literally years 🙂 and like you I shall still go to the allotment as will drive there and stay the mandatory 2 metres from everyone else!
Ah, apologies Hitch. I just associate elderly with elders. As in wise and experienced.
It’s not a derogatory word to me but no worries.
“Older” it is. 🙂
Ah, fair play Badger and I wasn’t offended – no need to apologise.
I remember being called elderly in my 60’s in a local council meeting – that really did get a response. 🙂 🙂
We are only days away from our government enforcing these measures (closing pubs/restaurants/theatres etc). They are behind the curve and have admitted that their plan was based on flawed data, so the numbers needing treatment will be well over what the NHS can cope with. Really, all of you should be taking the utmost precautions. Look after yourselves as the best way to protect the vulnerable.
I don’t think this means being locked in the house for most of us. Walking in the open air is presumably OK. Just be careful anywhere where there are other people, and try to carry hand sanitiser (if you can get it) to use when you can’t wash with soap and water. That means when you visit petrol pumps, use chip and pin etc.
I’ve talked it through with my mum and dad, both in their 80’s and her with health problems. They have agreed we should keep away, and just keep in touch on the phone. It is tough and I’m sorry if this is preachy but stay safe everyone.
Thanks DSVilla, I’m being told constantly by my children to stay safe, I’m in your mom’s era and understand the fears, just come back from allotment I think that’s safe as its in the open, all the best to you and family.
Sad news of the death of Peter witingham condolences to his family.great crosser of the ball, played many year’s for Cardiff after leaving villa.maybe villa would have been better keeping him at the time,same as albrighton and Westwood.
Sad news that Roy, he was a Midland lad born in Nuneaton never understood why Villa let him go, 35 is no age and I share his families loss. R.I.P Peter.
What a shock – another good player let go too soon. Thoughts with his family and friends. Once part of the Villa family, always part of the Pride. Holte Ender in the Sky RIP.
Terrible shame. Some crazy fall whilst at home. Always gave his all.
I hadn’t seen this news. That’s really sad. So young.
False news ..
It is understood Whittingham is in critical condition in Cardiff’s Heath Hospital.
On Wednesday, South Wales Police released a statement revealing what happened after social media users speculated.
It read: “At around 10pm on March 7, South Wales Police were called to a licensed premises in Barry.
“A 35-year-old man from Penarth suffered a head injury as a result of a fall and remains at the University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff.
“At this stage there is no evidence or suggestion of a criminal act, and it appears the injury was caused by an accidental fall.
“Enquiries are continuing into the circumstances of the incident.
So he’s still with us….?
He did die, I picked up on old news, I’ve got to get out stopping in driving me barmy. R.I P. Peter.
Bill – it seems to be a confused situation. BBC are reporting that he’s in hospital with serious head injuries.
It seems it’s difficult to rely on the authenticity of any news at present!