Brighton – Villa; An easy away win, right?

I know some of you love stats, so here’s a cracker I found.

Brighton’s last three home wins have all come in different years.
Ok, how’s that work then? I had to ask myself and on reading found this;
The last home win was against Spurs at the end of january just gone.
Previously the only win they got at home in the whole of 2020 was against Arsenal last June.
And the last one before that was against Bournemouth in December 2019.

Perhaps it’s just me but as someone who doesn’t really care much for stats, I find that astounding. One home win in a whole calendar year!

So tomorrow should be easy and it’s a foregone conclusion; We’ll win comfortably.

Squad news and on our part we’re all good.
Only Hause and Wesley are unavailable., which I still find surprising, given the time of year.
Is that indicative of players itching to play, as opposed to wanting to hide or just being wusses, I wonder?
Whatever, it’s good news.

As for Brighton, Adam Webster is a doubt because of an ankle injury as is Davy Propper who had a groin issue.
Both will be assessed late on.

We’re still waiting to really see Sanson, but I don’t see him starting this game.
I think a lot depends on how Dean Smith judged Ross Barkley’s kicking the bottle incident when he was subbed off last time out.
I saw certain opinions, where it was expected that Smith would read the riot act at Barkley.
I don’t subscribe to that at all and if I was Smith, I’d probably have called him in for a chat, explaining how I was sympathetic, explain why I did it and tell him that while I understand, it’s not good to show disagreement in public.
And then tell him he’ll back in for the next game.
Oh and then tell him that if I want to sub him, I will, simple as.
End of story and back to work.

We’ll no doubt see, but I’d be surprised if Barkley has been punished and been dropped.
I just don’t think Smith works like that.
The side showed plenty of energy last time out, so I can’t see him changing it at all.

If Smith is nothing else, he’s very predictable isn’t he?
Find your best eleven and stick with it. it’s certainly worked well up to now, so you can understand it.

I watched parts of Brighton’s game against Leicester and they looked okay to me, but they were away.
Their home record is somewhat weird, but we all know that if a team is doing extremely badly in some area or has had a really bad run, Villa are usually the best possible team to face to end that run.

So while we ought to be able to count our chickens here, I’m banking on nothing.
I’m just really glad we’re not facing Brighton like Spurs were and the home club hadn’t won in over six months.
I think I’d have been betting against us!

As it stands, I think we’ll get something at least.
In what I expect to be another good game (are we involved in any other kind these days?) I’m going for a win.

2-1 to the Villa.

COYL!

59 Comments

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  1. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 February 13, 2021 at 9:51 pm .

    Well that was truly awful.

    Martinez – what a truly inspirational signing.

  2. Holte66
    Holte66 February 13, 2021 at 9:59 pm .

    A bore draw in every sense. Brighton were sharper in possession and were physically stronger. I suppose you can say if you can’t win the game make sure you don’t lose it. Martinez certainly earned his wages today although not too many of his teammates can say the same. So much for having a weeks rest!

  3. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 February 13, 2021 at 10:02 pm .

    Brighton had 26 shots, 9 on target. We had a massive 4 shots!

    That just shows how poor we were.

    Having said that Brighton are a better side than they are given credit for but it’s worrying that sides are now finding a way to nullify Grealish but we don’t seem have an alternative plan to take advantage of that by using other players to fill the spaces.

    I’m absolutely not convinced by Barkley and there’s no way we should be paying Chelsea for a permanent transfer. He’s yet another media overrated player that flatters to deceive.

    Start Sanson next game and give him a chance.

    Smith – it’s down to you.

  4. Tekkers48
    Tekkers48 February 13, 2021 at 10:04 pm .

    Defence was on form tonight. As for the midfield, it was just truly awful. But a game we would definitely lost last season. So an improvement of sorts. Disappointing not to really test their keeper with the attacking players at our disposal. But as the saying goes, if you can’t win the game don’t loose it. I’m clutching at straws with my assessment but I’ve got to keep the faith as I did last season.

  5. Tom
    Tom February 13, 2021 at 10:12 pm .

    Well let’s just see it as job done this season and everything from now on is a bonus.
    It seriously frustrates me when the commentators talk Europe regarding the villa. Then we go and perform like that.
    Credit to Brighton and you only need to look at their last 5 games to see how impressive a run they are on.
    I’ve heard people say it takes 3 years to create a stable premier league team and nights like this prove it.Today we needed the power of a striker from the bench and midfielder with ideas. Troare has an absolute shocker. Clearly their is a place to be won between Troare, Trez and El ghazi. Troare and el gahzi must be two of the OST unpredictable players in the league. It’s all or nothing from both.
    Yes it looms like teams are starting to find out how to tame Grealish but I can’t help but feel we to easily give him permission to room side to side.

  6. Bill Pearson..
    Bill Pearson.. February 13, 2021 at 10:22 pm .

    My assumption on Barkley proved right tonight, I said a few weeks back he was hiding in the game and tonight I’m right. One player can hold up his head and take the praise of saving 9 saves on target. 24 atemps to me we was very lucky to get away with that game.Sanson must start on our next game against Leicester on Sunday at home. Off to bed.

    1. Sidforever
      Sidforever February 13, 2021 at 10:59 pm .

      The pluses from the match:
      * Martinez excellent
      * Defence resolute

      Negatives: Teams are becoming wise to closing Grealish down. This means Barkley and Troare stepping up and that’s not happening.

      Then again the distribution by McGinn was poor today.

      But this result shows the progression we have made from last year, where we would have lost this type of match.

      Come the summer Villa have a big decision. I would not buy Barkley for £40m which is the paper talk. I would prefer Grealish at No10 and us buying a real quality wide left player. I sure we can for less than the cost of Barkley who is not worth £40m.

  7. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 February 14, 2021 at 7:29 am .

    Disappointing as the performance was, I have to agree that this was a game we would have probably lost last season and credit to Brighton who are in a fine run of form.

    Martinez MoM – easiest decision of the season – but I also agree that the defence played their part given the lack of contribution from the midfield.

    I felt for Watkins; ran his heart out as usual with zero service.

    Like others, I’m really not convinced by Barkley. His link up play with Grealish in his first two games was exceptional but since then he’s failed to contribute at a level expected of a player of his (claimed) quality. He was really poor last night – fortunately I have confidence in the Villa management not wasting money on him. There will be better players available in the summer offering much better value.

    Even though teams are starting to find ways to reduce Grealish’ effectiveness, I don’t think he’s been at his best last two or three games. Watching him last night I thought he lacked his usual sharpness but all players, not matter how good, have times when their form isn’t quite at 100%. What is disappointing is the failure of the other players around him to up their game and help out.

    Sanson must start next game instead of Barkley and, perhaps Trezeguet should be given a start in place of Traore?

    Just hoping that Cash went off with cramp rather than a hamstring injury.

    1. Hitchens60
      Hitchens60 February 14, 2021 at 7:38 am .

      Having just looked at the BBC report, Grealish scored the lowest points of any player on either side in the viewers vote.

      That, I think in part, reflects the extremely high standards he has set this season as he definitely wasn’t the worst player on view – either Traore or Barkley qualifies for that title.

      It also reinforces my view that he didn’t look ‘quite right’ last night – whatever the reason might be.

  8. Bill Pearson..
    Bill Pearson.. February 14, 2021 at 10:03 am .

    I’m a thinking the same, sat and watched it again this morning , yes I know the irony of it all is it didn’t improve. It looks as if the likes of Barkley and Grealish plus Traore didn’t want to play football , Mcginn I watched him when they was attacking walk back towards the goal line, what’s our problem ? We had a near perfect team go completely titts up and that’s over the last 3-4 games. Watkins was left wanting and running around like a spare ? You know what at a wedding. Christ only 4 points away from European football you’d think that alone would give them heart. Leicester Sunday at Villa park , can you honestly think we will get a result! ! not on your nelly or nellie. Bum Bum save me I’m sinking into frustration.

  9. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 February 14, 2021 at 10:32 pm .

    Whilst our attacking, enterprising prowess has been widely acknowledged, the reality is that our current position is built on having the second meanest defence in the EPL after Citeh. Villa / Chelsea share this distinction with 24 goals conceded (Citeh having conceded just 14).

    Although Martinez is a key component, the back four of Cash, Konsa, Mings and Targett have been exceptional.

    UTV

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