Well, it has, hasn’t it?
Quite simply, we’re facing the poorest team in the league at home.
And as far as I’m concerned, that’s all there is to it. I know this is football and anything can happen, but the fact is we won’t get an easier game all season.
Norwich still have a mathematical chance of staying up, but everybody knows that when you’re ten points adrift of safety at this stage it’s looking incredibly unlikely.
What does this mean for my newly acquired gambling habit then?
Well, I’m not twenty quid confident, but I’m more than a tenner confident, so have gone, er, in the middle.
So the Villa had definitely better win!
Mind you, I’m pretty much saying it should be straightforward, but a glance at the table shows that their current form dwarfs ours. They actually have a win and a draw in their last five games.
Which says it all about our shocking form of a solitary point.
Apparently, there’s going to be some sort of appreciation thing going on for Dean Smith and while I understand the sentiment, I don’t quite understand why we’d go that far. How will Stevie G feel about that?
What’s wrong with the good old fashioned big round of applause, similar to what we give ex-players who have been good servants?
Don’t get me wrong, I liked Dean Smith as one of our own, but this almost seems to me like some kind of admission that we were wrong to call for his head. We weren’t. He had to go because we weren’t progressing in the way we needed too.
I know we’ve gone through similar stuff under the present manager, but the circumstances are totally different. Gerrard hasn’t had anywhere near enough time, as much as things look bleak just now. He will not get much chance next season and a poor run of form then will see him sacked too.
Squad news then and there isn’t much really.
Bertrand Traore is back, but Sanson and Hause are both out. I’m past caring about the Frenchman, I think, because he’s a 100% goner. Hause too, probably, but I see that as a shame. If we do get another centreback in, I hope he can head the ball.
Josh Sargent is on the verge of a return for Norwich after being out with an ankle injury. Lukas Rupp is also back from a knee problem and Kenny McLean has a broken toe, but might play via an injection.
Defender Christoph Zimmermann is out with a hip flexor problem.
I can’t say I’ve heard of any of them, to be honest.
So given that this is the easiest game we have left this season, surely we can expect to see some of the kids can’t we?
Certainly looking at the rest of our games, they’re a lot tougher and any of them would be a baptism of fire for a young inexperienced player to start.
I’m going to guess that if we’re in a good position, the likes of Tim Iroegbunam might get minutes, but I don’t think Gerrard will have the courage to start him.
So we can expect the usual players that have performed so poorly over the last few weeks.
The manager has asked for plenty of agression, but that’s a smokescreen to me. Agression and effort isn’t the problem for me. There’s so much of that on display that we look like headless chickens, running around like idiots and not actually concentrating on anything that involves quality, like passing the ball accurately.
To be honest, it’s this sort of claptrap that actually turns me off this manager, but in his defence, what else is he supposed to say?
I’ve still got it in mind that even a very good player like John McGinn looks like a total clown lately.
That’s worrying.
So what to think?
Well, I’ve gone for the final result to Villa in my bet and it’s just a matter of the score.
I’m going for 2-1, but I’m not really convinced. I just can’t bring myself to say that Norwich will beat us, but I could possibly see a draw, which would be interesting because I think Villa fans’ patience is already wearing thin.
UTV!
I don’t see the value in signing Coutinho at this stage in our development and with the players we have or may have next season.
£33m plus (even if he reduces his wage demands) probably somewhere in the region of £20m per year over (say) a four year contract – total cost £113m. That might be the whole transfer budget and would be better spent in reinforcing the team in two or three positions.
Just my opinion.
I think that’s a fair point Hitch. That’s around £400k per week wages. If that’s what he would get it has a FFP effect too, though I think I read somewhere that the rules might be being relaxed a bit.
Reinforcing/improving 2 or 3 positions would probably cost more than £33m upfront though, particularly if we are looking at the quality we are supposed to be. I don’t know what we would have to pay in wages either. £100k is eye watering to us mere mortals but maybe top class players might think it’s not good enough.
I’m sure the owners are scratching their heads over this issue. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. As ever, I will enter next season with big expectations only to be gradually crushed by underwhelming performances
DS – they are changing the rules for teams in Europe moving to a wage cap approach based on a % of turnover. They are also allowing owners to fund clubs as long as it’s not through debt – in other words through a share issue type approach such as NSWE have used at Villa.
What seems unclear is in what form this will be adopted by the EPL. Of course this still gives a massive advantage to the ‘big’ clubs but, to me, it seems a more logical financial approach.
Villa’s big problem is their surprisingly low turnover when compared with other EPL clubs hence the owners drive to increase it through (for example) expanding the stadium and increasing ticket revenues (we’re still one of the clubs with the lowest ticket prices in the EPL).
The proposed ticket price increases have come in for some criticism. The proposal is for a 10% increase across the board, a reduction in concession rates and a simplification of the zonal seat pricing – so the lowest priced seat zones will move up a tier. As a result some ST holders could find themselves with a threefold increase – quite a few of which are probably long standing (and long suffering) ST holders. Get this wrong and the owners could well alienate long standing supporters and at the same time significantly the reduce the 22,000 ST waiting list which, in part, is driving both the stadium expansion and price increases!
In regard to cost of players; from an accounting stand point it’s preferable to pay more in transfer fees (which can be written off over the length of the players contract) and less in average wages per player (see wage cap above).
In my humble opinion, all the above strongly argues against signing Coutinho.
Apologies for the long ramble!
Correction – wage cap based on a % of revenue not turnover.
Hitch – so say the EPL was to adopt the La Liga model then what would our salary cap for the coming season?
RSS – I slightly simplified the new regs and didn’t get the wage cap quite right – I’m no expert on this so just what I’ve read.
These new regulations are applicable to EUFA competitions so I assume the EPL would have to separately vote to adopt them.
FFP is gone and Financial Sustainability Regulations are in.
Seems to be two main elements – 1. Clubs can lose up to €60m over three years (double the current limit) plus a further €10m in the same period if they are deemed to be in ‘good financial health’. I believe there are tighter rules around debt and balance sheets (I did read that owners investments – rather than loans – would be taken into account). Also there are to quarterly checks to ensure payments are being made in a timely manner.
2. Squad costs (not just wages) will be limited to 70% of revenue. Squad costs include players wages, transfer fees and and agents fees. This will be implemented over three years 90% in first, 80% in second etc. Rather more restrictive than I originally thought. I don’t know what the definition of revenue is but I assume it includes all income including that from transfers.
EUFA dropped the title FFP because it suggested it was about developing a more level playing field – they’ve now admitted this is purely about financial well being and not about financial equality.in other words it favours the rich clubs and further limits the ability of any other club breaking into their dominance of the European game – is this a sop to the super league ambitions?
I’m sure I’ve over simplified it but under these rules how will a club like Villa be able to compete in the transfer market without either selling players or substantially increasing income. I saw figures recently which were very s uprising and showed Villa were towards the bottom of the EPL table in terms of revenue and towards the top in terms of wages as a percentage of revenue. I’ll try and find them.
You can see why Villa are making a big effort to develop young talent by acquiring as many of the best youngsters they can – either as potential first team players (Ramsey, Iroegbunam) or to sell at a profit (Chukweumeka)
Notwithstanding, somehow NSWE also have to substantially increase our revenue streams if we have serious ambitions of top six finish.
Apologies for the long post
Hitch, I’m not sure where you’re getting the figures from re our revenue, but I’ll bet any period will cover our time in the Championship, meaning it’s no wonder the numbers look low.
I’ve just seen a list where Palace, Brighton, Fulham, Stoke and even Bournemouth are worth more than the Villa.
I don’t think any of those clubs would come anywhere near normally and we were just outside the top 20 in the world, the last rich list I saw.
Point taken though, we’re definitely down the list of late, but I’d say that’s only temporary.
And we definitely have to get the numbers up if we want to compete.
Badger it was a Deloitte report if I remember correctly. I’ll try and find it but I was surprised at the numbers – you might be right about the period it covered though.
I did think about writing an article about it but thought I’d probably just bore everyone 🙂
Badger – Deloittes Report on football finances 2021 covering 2019/20 season.
The two figures that surprised me were – Only Bournemouth had a lower revenue at £95m to Villa’s £110m and only Leicester had a worse wages to revenue ratio at 115% against Villa’s 99%.
OK it was our first season back but you cannot run a business where all your revenue is spent on wages – no wonder we made thumping great losses.
In Deloittes 2022 Football Money League (covering the 20/21 season) we have risen to 21st in Europe with revenue of £207m which is encouraging.
I would think if he’s going to stay he would be playing his heart out, bet you he’s gone at the end of the season,
Great points and views about Coutinho. The key is what will his wage demands be.
If he was prepared to drop to £200k or less , then I would not be surprised to see him at Villa next year. However, if his demands are above and beyond, then I can’t see it happening.
The only other point would be the divining on fee. Does this count as part of the transfer fee and can be written off overtime or is it wages?
A high signing on fee to compensate formless wages could be a route forward.
On a different note great article quoting SG on young players. “But in the last two or three weeks ( Tim Iroegbunam) he’s out-trained competitors in that position and I need to be true to my word. I said to everyone when I came through the door, if you earn the right to an opportunity I will be true to my word and I’ll back you up. I don’t care how old they are“.
Surely this is the last nail in the coffin for: Chukwuemeka, Luiz and Sanson. I expect these 3 to be sold in the summer.
That seems a reasonable argument Sid re: Coutinho’s wages although I still think he’s a luxury player we’re not set up to nor in a position to take full advantage. Buendia still for me.
I don’t know for sure how a signing on fee would be dealt with but I guess it’s just wages in another form and would be treated as a cost (wages) rather than capital expenditure on an asset (transfer fee).
Isn’t Chukwuemeka a free agent come the summer?
I think he is free to seek another club and pre sign but still a Villa player for another year unless we agree to sell him to recoup something. Shame to see him go but hard to see where he goes that is really ahead of us and gives him plenty of pitch time
Sid I read it interesting for once .
Sid / Bill where did you see the article you refer to?
Hi Hitch
Birmingham Mail online – hopefully the link below will take you there.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/aston-villa-iroegbunam-steven-gerrard-23770812
Thanks Sid – got it.
It seems to me that SG isn’t concerned about publicly upsetting players (albeit unnamed) with his comments. It’s a difficult balancing act so I hope he knows what he’s doing!
Sir Ron was a brilliant man manager getting the best out of all his players by knowing how to treat each one individually.
SG seems to be using a one size fits all battering ram 🙂
Just been out for dinner with a Wolves season ticket holder. Asked him what has gone wrong there for them to fall away so badly. He says the manager publicly slated one of the players and the team have reacted badly to it. Maybe shows how easy it is to lose the dressing room and where the power lies.
That’s right Hitch, Sir Ron in an interview said some players needed an arm round their shoulder and others responded to a kick up the backside. Have you watched the Birmingham Live podcast with Mortimer, Evans, Cowans and Morley? Definitely worth a watch if you haven’t. I felt sad about Sid who is clearly showing signs of dementia. It reminded me of how my dad was when he had it in the early stages. As for Morley, he clearly had a love / hate relationship with Sir Ron who knew that tough love got the best out of him.
No, haven’t seen the podcast Holte – will try and find it.
I remember Sir Ron saying about Morley – ‘If I didn’t kick him up the arse at least once a week, he would come into my office and ask me what he’d done wrong!’
Brilliant.
Hitch, write that article if you get chance.
Badger – I’ll put something together for an article at the end of the season as I’ll need to do some more research and it’s probably more appropriate in the close season.
https://shop.regionalnewspapers.co.uk/aston-villa-40th-anniversary-european-cup-1840-p.asp
Oh dear, the Manchester Oil Company will not be adding their name to the list of English winners of the European Cup this year. “The Spanish Job” rivalled The Italian Job in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
It’s just so upsetting.
My heart bleeds.
Greenish getting slaughtered on social media after his bench warmer camio
https://twitter.com/SoccerAM/status/1514545471938834434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
If that was Sterling he wouldn’t have passed it back..
As thoughts turn back to the 1982 stars 40 years on, one feature of that team was their durability – which in turn meant there were fewer needed in the squad.
Villa today have recruited players who spend months out. Is this bad luck. No in most cases. Break a major bone and the permanent scars are mental, example Ray Graydon, because the bone itself knits back together stronger than before.
On the other hand, breaking minor bones in the foot will happen again to players who are susceptible. Muscular injuries: typically groin and hamstrings and joint injuries: hip, knee, ankle tend to recur. Before any player is bought his medical history should be researched for periods on the injury list. It is a fallacy to assume the player was unlucky and that after joining Villa he is no more likely to suffer a similar injury than a player who has not had that injury. Wrong. Our history proves that. Do we expect to get a full season out of Digne, Bailey or Traoré? The stats say no, they were absent from their former clubs for several matches.
If a player is for sale, and appears to be a better player than the selling club’s first choice, that should ring alarm bells.
Targett can do a full season. Oh dear.
We seem to have made some shocking signings, injury-wise, without a doubt.
And it seems we over-train the players, with Targett looking like a classic example.
Which given the amount of experts the club has, is inexcusable.
We’ve now just added another one,which is interesting. Why would you leave Liverpool after 17 years to come to the Villa?
Gravy train springs to mind and it can only be for vastly improved wages.
Just as the ST prices have been massively increased.
https://theathletic.com/news/aston-villa-boss-steven-gerrard-hires-phil-roscoe-from-liverpool/ZbaVfZiiW9xO/
I don’t have a problem with the basic increase of 10% (not 30% as some have claimed) in ticket prices as there hasn’t been any over the ‘Covid years’ and Villa’s prices are some of the lowest in the EPL.
Where the problem arises is in the reduction in concession rates and the seat re-zoning which left a significant (minority) of fans facing up to a 300% increase in their prices – particularly students, younger fans and for the over 66 year olds.
The fan consultation group raised this with the club who, having looked at it, have introduced a 50% cap on any individual price increase which at least means they are listening.
Amazing how many coaches, medics, advisors and ‘shrinks’ clubs need these days!
Roscoe?
Why would he?
(Unless £££’s are significantly better)