We all know the script.
It’s a six-pointer.
Unfortunately, this time I think it’s true, as if we lose this one at home to another team below us, we’re going to be in serious trouble.
And that’s before the Watford game, which I don’t even want to think about at the moment.
We do have one plus point in our favour, in that we have an advantage in our goal difference, which I think will prove very important at the end of the season, but the way we’re shipping goals and not scoring them, how long will that last?
I know, my opinion is a big turnaround from just a couple of weeks ago, where I was quite confident that we’ll be ok come the end of the season.
The truth is, I still think we will, if things go well.
And the more realistic amongst us all knew there would be tough times that at least test the confidence.
I just didn’t think they would begin with us being so poor against Southampton at home.
Follow it up with another poor performance against Norwich and perish the thought, lose against Watford and it’s going to be a sphincter factor of at least 9.5, it’s as simple as that.
It’s not fickle; it’s just being bloody worried.
Trying to concentrate on one game at a time, what’s the squad news?
Norwich have no recent injuries, but Josip Drmic, who has a thigh problem, and Ben Godfrey and Timm Klose, with knee injuries are all long termers.
So no dramatic worries there then, on our part.
As for us, you don’t need me telling you about McGinn, who might be out for 3 months or more.
Mings and Kienan Davis are apparently quite close, but it’s too soon.
Which is a shame, because you’d think Mings will walk straight back into the side, as soon as he’s fit and Davis would have to be at least an option.
Thoughts then and I’m worried.
Part of me thinks we really shouldn’t have a problem here, as with no disrespect intended, it’s Norwich at home, where they have an even worse Prem record than us.
We beat them 5-1 away, for god’s sake, didn’t we?
Except that was against a particularly weakened side and our confidence was high and we were playing well, with all guns firing.
Now, confidence amongst the players seems low, heads are dropping and we seem to lack belief, which is demonstrated by what seems lack-lustre effort.
Without McGinn, even though he’s been injured for the last few weeks, I’m wondering where the midfield energy and fight is going to come from?
Dean Smith will surely have to change things up and I reckon he’ll go two up top, simply to try and get Wesley into the game more.
Even if he doesn’t, I’d put Grealish in the hole, behind either one or two strikers.
I’d say if you don’t want to play Grealish behind a top two, you play him behind Wesley and put Kodjia wide left.
Either way, you close the gap between the midfielders and the strikers and give the opposition something to think about, at least.
I don’t think there’s much doubt that leaving Wesley up top on his own simply hasn’t worked, regardless of the reasons why and we need some vibrancy in the middle.
The point is, if we pay Norwich too much respect, they’re going to punish us.
Pukki will have a heyday against the way we’re playing at the back lately.
I see goals; most likely a 3-2 either way.
Dean Smith needs to at least get the tactics right, as he’s going to be under massive pressure if he gets it wrong.
And we don’t want that facing Watford, do we?
The truth is, his tactics will be totally judged on the result, because it’s the way it is.
I don’t care if we just scrape the result. We simply have to get it.
Or the knives will be out and that’s the last thing we need in a relegation struggle.
All that said, Happy Christmas, or Happy holidays, if that doesn’t float your boat.
I’m just appreciative of anyone who’s replied over the last year, or even just read the site.
Thanks chaps.
Comments
59 responses to “Villa – Norwich: Are you confident? Sadly, I’m not”
Did I emphasise how worried I am?
I’m afraid to say, I have a bad feeling about this game, as much as I’m trying to stay confident.
OK – First Happy Christmas to Badger and all you AN&V posters and to all Villa fans wherever you might be.
Second – a big thank you to Badger for all his hard work in managing this site and posting good challenging pieces. I know how hard it must be with work commitments and all.
As VA in Div3 remarked we have an absolutely sh*t record in recent years over Christmas and particularly on Boxing Day.
Sadly the absolute best I can see is a draw but I fear we may well fall to a defeat and, if so, I wonder whether Smith will last to see the January window.
I really hope I’ve just been influenced by the general lack of confidence around VP but, sadly, I do fear the worst.
Nonetheless UTV and COYL – SOTC
Beat Norwich 5-1 but they run us ragged early on….
They did the same when they went up as well….
I said before the Soton match they would beat us….
We are usually useless over the holiday period….
All in all I am totally bricikn it……no faith that Dean will change anything….not saying whether we will Win Draw or Loose…..
I’d suggest that if Dean doesn’t change it up and we lose, he’ll be under even bigger pressure, as he’s already being accused of having no plan B.
Or even a plan A, if you read other sites.
I can’t help think that it’s Groundhog Day.
We’ve drafted in a bunch of players with little it no premier league experience and we are being managed by someone that is stubborn and unable/unwilling to change tactics when needed.
Add to that the reactive substitutions and lack of proactiveness when we’ve been in winning positions and it could be 2016 all over again and Lambert could be in charge.
It’s all just so predictable, and we are just so predictable.
The Southampton game was a real insight into the mental strength of this club and I can’t see anything but failure again.
Hate to sound so negative.
We will win by t try getting skin of our teeth.
A win is a must against Norwich because we will do well to get even a point versus Watford. Unfortunately we are lacking players with leadership qualities and I fear the worst.
Anyway, that’s not till Boxing Day, so happy Christmas to everyone out there!
It happened again Badger and I really didn’t post the above as a response!
Sorry Hitch, but you’re the only one complaining about this.
I strongly suspect you’re replying directly without realising it.
It’s easy done.
As a slight aside, I believe I have something to do on boxing day.
I’ll sort it, no worries.
That aside, thanks for the thoughts, it’s appreciated.
MERRY CHRISTMAS vtid posters on avnav
1 nil tomorrow clean sheet and wesley goal 1000/1 put a squid on that
Hi all, Christmas is a sad time for me Badger knows why, to take my mind off things I still read your posts, I think now is the time our owners will be monitoring the next move for us in business world, Dean is now under pressure to get it right in this game coming up, our first few games we was the victim of VAR and it hurt us mentally, we do have to win this game coming up otherwise knives will be out. Lads have a nice Christmas regards to you all . Bill.
Some traits seem hard to dispel – even when all the staff are different. Villa being a fair-weather team. We seem to be at our best in the Autumn and Spring but go through the Winter as if our brains are numbed.
I really could understand players who have been raised nearer the Equator struggling for form in the miserable conditions of an English winter. But that is a problem, arguably more so, that other EPL teams should suffer from but don’t appear to. Is it the colour of the shirts? There is a standing gag in London that West Ham come down with the Christmas decorations, but I have not noticed Burnley suffering the same.
We are well overdue a no-loss Christmas and New year spell, so it had better start tomorrow. I am not confident.
OLL. They know its crunch time, if Villa shows no comitment then game over. The owner’s will move in and heads will roll. You mark my words.
I agree with Bill. The owners must be looking at our position, what is happening on the pitch, and how much money they have invested. These are business men who will not want their investment being relegated. If changes don’t come very soon from the manager and players, then I feel that the owners will implement the changes themselves.
I have been saying much the same (about the owners acting if matters don’t improve) but then I look back at Fulham’s I’ll fated year in the Prem. Changing managers didn’t help them.
I have a sneaky feeling the owners may decide to go for the long game and back Smith through this season.
Time will tell.
I’m with OLL though – it’s about time Villa gave their fans something to celebrate over Christmas and the New Year.
i really do not believe its the time to panic, smith has one of the weakest squads in the premiership looking around. watford bottom and their squad compared to us, they are much stronger. they are in a false position and we are not. its sad but true(metallica) we are having a bad time at minute, with either confidence or self belief or it just maybe down to losing a very influential player like Mings and now Mcginn.
like soton game which was a very importantly big game. norwich game is now even bigger. we let ourselves down last time. because as good as soton were on the break , we were very poor in every area of the pitch. we allowed them to play with no fear of us hurting them.
today i expect the players will be 100% focused on putting the wrongs right. its a very similar game to soton as they both like to play on the break. so this time i like to see villa impose our game more and affect them in their weakness department,which is their defence.
looking at the squad of players we have currently. i am most disappointed in El Ghazi and Trézéguet both show glimpses of what they can do. but both are way too inconsistent to play in our team. both are defensively invisible, that would be ok if they carried a threat the other way, they both need to sharpen up and create more dangers than they do.
p/s El Ghazi was one of soton’s best players last game. he needs to wake up and do the basics. he tries to do the flicks and tricks in the wrong areas. too many times he allows his man to escape him in our final third. this had a knock on effects for Guilbert who then had to cope with two attackers. Ghazi gives away the stupidest fouls also when he does attempt to defend, like the hand ball outside the box, when it was easier to head the bloody thing. maybe needs to be drop, try jota for these two important games he is more attacking and more effective, lacks pace maybe for this league
It will be interesting to see how Smith sets up his team today. Will he play 2 up top? If not, will he stick with Wesley? I don’t expect any formation changes unfortunately. If he plays 4 at the back, would it be a good idea to play the more experienced Taylor and Elmo? I’ve not been impressed with Target as a defender so does he need a rest? Personally when times are tough I think experience is important to cope with the mental demands from our fans. I would drop El Ghazi too because he is a liability defensively. I would play a midfield 4 of Hourihane, Luiz, Nakamba and Lansbury with Grealish in the hole behind Kodja.
I know this lacks width without typical wide men but let’s face facts, none of them are producing the goods right now. A 4-4-1-1 would be more solid and has more chance of grinding out a 1-0. Something we currently don’t have in our locker.
I look forward to other fans opinions on how we should set up before Dean Smith goes with predictability anyway.
totally agree with the width point, none of our players who are regarded as wingers / wide men are producing anything attacking and are defensively a liability. i seen smith teams at Brentford and Walsall he never had out and out wingers there. to be fair to grealish and el ghazi they are not playing that role now. they are basically playing three roles. second striker when ball is on the other side. then they are supposed to cover / track the opposition full back. and supply /support wesley
what ever smith does today. the players own him a performance,because their performance last week. heaped loads of pressure on him and themselves. i have not seen such a bad performance like that under smith or do i wish to see another one.
another thing i can accept defeat if i saw us give it a right go. but they surrendered against soton without as much as a argument.
iam going for a 1 nil win but it will be tough,cause norwich will see us as three points must and we need to change that thought back to fearing us
Heaton, Elmohamady, Konsa, Hause, Targett, Luiz, Nakamba, Grealish, El Ghazi, Wesley, Trezuguet.
One up front then….surrender…..as attack is our only defence.
Yep, it seems like it.
That midfield looks weak without McGinn and there’s only Hourihane and Lansbury as backup.
Noone to mix it.
We need to move and pass accurately if we’re going to get any joy.
That’s fucked it then.
i called the konsa and hause for this game. i think smith believes norwich will offer more dangers from breaks and pace on floor. rather than dangers in the air. as for elmo i really understand this too, as guilbert was so bad last game. el ghazi hung the kid out with the rats offering no protection. two holding midfield might also help out the full backs and give el ghazi and trez more licence to attack. just hope they manage to do that and give us more attacking threats and more service.
Agree about Elmo coming in for Guilbert.
I personally would have bought Taylor in too.
Not that I like him, but we need to beef up the defence.
Exactly as predicted a 4-3-3 formation. About time the front 3 started producing something in front of the midfield 3. Will Grealish play CM? Time for everyone to roll their sleeves up and give 110% as Sir Ron would say.
i think grealish role will be free one. he will be instructed to get close to wesley. more central. but off course he will drift to get involved and influence us. but he has not full back to follow. he will be causing havoc for norwich cause in the centre he is much harder to pick up
Just said on Prime that Grealish will play in the number 10 role.
About bloody time, imo.
i think smith wanted to play him there but has no wide men so was forced to play grealish on the left frustratingly. yeah i think the number 10 he will not have to trrack back. but he will drop into midfield at times and join wesley up top. i agree this is the position for grealish. time for the players around him to step up
Norwich look like scoring any moment. Smith needs to be proactive and not reactive. El Ghazi and Nakamba are dog shite.
Southampton take the lead at Chelsea.
Watford 1 up.
Sheff U equalise.
Half time 0-0. The amount of times Norwich broke through our back four is worrying. They are having lots of joy down our left side with Target and Trezeguet constantly ball watching. If we carry on the same way then there will only be one winner. Also we usually start the second half poorly.
villa players look nervous and very edgy. norwich are as vulnerable as villa are in the wide areas. just like our wingers not tracking norwich do the same. but our full backs are too nervous to exploit this. elmo got into some nice positions but wank crosses and final balls wasted them chances.
just need to trust ourselves and be more positive and three points are there for the taking
Well, I’m not convinced again.
Too many players don’t look like they’re up to the pace of the Prem to me.
My money says Pukki will score.
Why is the “watch every game” page 30 seconds in front of the actual stream?
Really annoying that is, almost as much as watching us labour again.
Norwich far superior on the ball- El Ghazi and Trezeguet are a million miles off what is required at this level.
Fully expecting our usual conceding of a goal between 46-55 mins and Norwich to coast to victory.
Fresh blood needed in the playing squad and sad to say a new coaching setup. Smith is never going to be good enough for the PL
1st time we have not got shot on target in 1st half at VP
And now the Prime stream is actually a full minute behind their own “watch every game” feed.
That’s crap.
Skating on thin ice, atm.
Poor again.