Despite the concerns raised over our lack of activity in the transfer market, isn’t the reality that very few transfers, within the EPL, have actually been concluded and, might I add, none relating to players we might have an interest in or would be interested in joining us.
Should we be concerned? – not in my view; lots of ‘click bait’ rubbish much of which seems to be regurgitated window after window.
The fees being bandied around – mainly by the journos it has to be said – are bizarre in the extreme given the impact of COVID on the finances of pretty much every club in the EPL. Surely these daft numbers have to become more realistic over time even given the disproportionate amount of TV money being thrown around?
This window is arguably the most critical for Villa in many years. We survived against all the odds and now we have to take advantage of that. Purslow is on record as saying that promotion was a year ahead of the plan so, having survived, I might argue we are still a year ahead – but we are still several years behind the majority of the ‘new boys’ in the EPL. Looking around though, there are a number of teams no better than us in terms of ability but being able to draw on their EPL years of experience.
Are Palace, Brighton, West Ham, Newcastle et al that much better then us? More experienced, more savvy maybe – but better? Teams like Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and United are in transition – even City. So, it seems to me, that we have a great opportunity to cement and even advance on that year in hand – but to do so we have to get our transfer dealings spot on. No pressure on Lange, Mackenzie and Smith then!
One thing is certain, we can’t afford to be sentimental; something we have possibly all been guilty of in the past. When I say sentimental it’s about recognising that to improve we must buy new players that will challenge our existing squad – no matter who that might be. So, for instance, there is no point in buying a new midfielder that can’t challenge McGinn, Luiz or even Grealish – buying squad fillers or players that pay homage to ‘fan favourites’ is not the answer nor will it improve us as a team. Smith, Lange and Mackenzie have to demonstrate a ruthless streak in the market, both in selecting targets and negotiating the deals.
And that brings me nicely onto where we need to concentrate our recruitment efforts.
From a general point of view then we have to believe that our existing squad has improved through a year’s experience of playing in the EPL and any player that has clearly not responded to the challenge should be shown the door – Jota, Lansbury, El Ghazi are examples that readily spring to mind – I’m sure there are others.
Two key positions leap out – striker and goal keeper. Last season we left ourselves vulnerable in both positions for differing reasons – a surplus of average goal keepers and a lack of strikers – is it any wonder that we were found out? We cannot afford to make the same mistakes in this transfer window.
OLL has raised a perfectly valid question in asking why Dyche was prepared to let Heaton go for a relatively modest fee. Apart from OLL’s view that Heaton, statistically at least, makes far too many mistakes , he also has a poor fitness record as does Steer. We bought lots of goal keepers but our transfer dealings meant we were relying on Heaton staying fit otherwise we would fall back on the relatively inexperienced and injury prone Steer and after that Nyland and Kalinic – need I say more? In my view, we need to recruit a new and top quality No. 1 – if Heaton wants the shirt then he has to prove to be better.
Then there’s the absolutely key striker position. Having acquired the inexperienced Wesley for £22m we failed dismally to add to our strikers in the last window. In fact we either sold or loaned out all our other strikers apart for Davis – who, whilst good at holding up the ball, is both woeful at finishing and another sick note. Is it any surprise therefore when we ended up without a single striker to lead the line?
Had Trezegeut not suddenly found his shooting boots then all would have been lost.
The number of Championship strikers that have moved to the EPL on the back of big fees is extensive. What is also true is the majority have failed to live up to their billing. It’s one thing having scored 20+ goals in the Championship and another repeating that in the EPL.
We have an unenviable record in this regard, McCormack, Kodjia, Hogan all came for big fees and failed to live up to their billing. A prime example is Hogan; Smith was happy to let Hogan leave Brentford to join us for a large fee and having joined the club himself was quick to push Hogan out on loan.
So why would Watkins be any different – particularly at a mooted fee of £25m+? Or am I just being overly negative? I have no problem with Watkins joining to strengthen our striking options but not at £25m+ nor as our primary striker. Maybe alongside a cheap deal for Callum Wilson it might make sense?
And then there’s Benrahma – another player quoted at £25m+ – but is he really going to significantly improve on what we already have?
The challenge is for Lange et al to significantly improve the squad – not to just spend large bucks adding names. It remains to be seen whether the mistakes of last summer’s window are avoided this term.
So new announcements would be welcome but not at any price.
Comments
89 responses to “Transfer window musings”
grealish now 4/7 at the bookmakers doesn’t mean anything maybe a manc has put a quid on him going to utd. bookmakers don’t just respond to betting. no smoke without fire,
imo something is happening other than betting joe public, it is not certain he will move, but its more than just speculations,this sort of coveting our best player will go down to the wire. utd scum they are, will take this to the closing of the window and it will leave us running around late to get replacement in.
if grealish leaves its better its now and not last 12 hours of window, which utd will wait for to get the right price for them. i would personally plead with jack to give us 12 months and then we will bless his wishes. we could have a good season with jack but without him might be a step too far, jack was so influential last year, i doubt the current squad could step up to the plate without him, in fact i can guarantee they cant. also bringing in a suitable replacement,they would also struggle to fill his boots jack has/is villa heartbeat for last few seasons and presently continues to be
odds are falling faster now 2 /5 on looks like we need to get with plan B without jack
Sky are reporting that Manure have held talks with Villa over a move for Grealish. Although it doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s moving, it might explain the moves in the betting market.
I agree that if he’s going it has to be either early in the window or he doesn’t move unless or until we’ve found a replacement.
Much has been made of Grealish’s contribution to our survival and, as a talisman, I think that’s fair comment. However, the key stats don’t actually support that point of view. For instance – according to the EPL stats both Targett and Hourihane created 8 ‘big’ assists (i.e. high probability of direct goal conversion) the same number as as Grealish. The difference being that both Targett and Hourihane played significantly less minutes than Grealish so arguably, their contributions were more important.
Also Grealish has (I think) the highest level of ball carry but with a very low effective outcome. Does this mean he doesn’t trust his team mates or he thinks he’s just better?
Sentimentally, I would like Grealish to stay but if Manure are prepared to fork out £80m for him to be a squad player and where he will probably get less game time then good luck to him; I can’t see it improving his England chances one iota.
Ah, stats.
They’re great. And very often misleading.
I don’t think it’s any coincidence at all that probably 99.9% of Villa fans would rather keep Grealish over Hourihane and Targett combined.
Mind you, I am biased and don’t rate Hourihane in the slightest when it comes to what he offers in a game.
It’s a shame he can’t be brought on like a kicker in that funny American version of the game. And then taken straight back off when the real stuff is being played.
I’m not at all keen on Targett either and don’t understand why we seem to be proritising a RB over LB in the slightest. If Targett gets injured, we’re left with Taylor and to mind that’s the single biggest liability the team has. But hey, what do I know?
As for Grealish, having thought about it, I agree.
He’s easily the best player for us, but he won’t be anywhere near on that same pedestal for Utd.
He isn’t going to get anywhere near the playing time at Man U as he’ll get at the Villa and I think he’ll be making a massive mistake.
If Villa really are in talks with Man U (and I’m not at all convinced they are), I hope they’re saying we do a deal this week at our price or you can just forget it. As simple as that.
We cannot let them drag it out, as it’ll cause us a major problem because the midfield will have a major void if Grealish isn’t in it.
And if a deal can’t be done very quickly, we tell Grealish he’s staying, no ifs and buts.
No doubt he’d be gutted (or would he?), but there’s no way he’d throw a major strop imo.
Whatever happens, we need to get a bloody move on.
I find it all quite unbelievable the way we’ve messed about, when Smith has consistently made a big point of not having enough time to bed players in.
I know players have been on holiday etc, but this is just so typical of Villa.
We missed out on Benrahma last year for a couple of miilion quid and it’s just a bloody joke.
Then again, there’s something I might not have thought about in my above comment.
The word was we made Grealish some sort of promise last season.
Hence there’s every possibility that we promised him a move this time.
In which case any conjecture may be pointless.
But who would we be looking at to replace him?
There’s been no realistic rumours about that, from what I’ve seen, silly £10-15 million players apart.
man utd seem to have many irons in the fire as we speak. apparently they are really close to signing donny van de beek he is central midfielder / attacking central midfielder. so adding one and two i think is four and if they get donny v d beek they might not need grealish. grealish might be the fall back if they fail on donny. so fingers crossed jack remains with us.
for those that hate the bookies odds donny is even hotter to go to utd 1/ 20 on and jacks now 1 /3 late last week jack was 3/1 or 4/1 to leave to utd so you can see why i was over ventilating. its cool now i am breathing normal
And he’s half the price of Grealish!
very true
i havent seen this guy. so i don’t know if he is similar player / direct replacement, but the figures are as you say 40mill which is a bargain utd best option for you,
Remember Bosnich. Brilliant villa goal keeper. Let his contract run down for dream move to manure and it ruined him. Fergie hardly played him.
If I was Jack Grealish, I know exactly what I would tell Southgate following his most recent call up……
I was just going to post the same.
It does mean there may not be such urgency to go to Man U though.
It’s up to the player now. If he gets a start, he has to perform.
For anyone who hasn’t seen yet;
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/breaking-jack-grealish-called-up-22605315
Oh and if he isn’t worth £80 mill now, he will be if he gets a start.
In fact I reckon we’d better add another £20 mill on 🙂
Let’s make it £120m…just for a laugh!!!
Brilliant, now I’m happy . Go for it Jack you’ve earned it ,.
Rumours are that deal for Matty Cash is all but done. This would be a great signing and give us a very good back 4. Lets hope its true!
Really not sure why we are prioritising a RB over a LB as Guilbert is miles better than Targett.
According to Sky we are after two strikers, Watkins and Wilson.
It wouldn’t surprise me if rico henry is our left back soon. I know another brentford player but i would rather our manager lives or dies by the sword with his preferred players rather than somebody elses.
Target ok going forward but gives the ball aeay a lot in dangerous areas and does not have great positional sense in a flat back 4.
I’ve repeatedly said exactly the same.
I don’t understand it and obviously Smith sees it different to me.
Watkins and Wilson – as I called it in my post!
Now off to buy lottery tickets 🙂
Hi everyone new(ish) here, or back at least after a bloody long time. Used to have a lot of interesting conversations here. Can still see many familiar names. Anyway thought I check back in again to involve myself in conversations (if you’ll have me back haha). Born in 84 so been through highs and lows as a fan.
Anyway, related to the post this window is indeed crucial, bloody hell it’s crucial but the currently lack of activity actually had me thinking there is a solid plan in place to get it right. Precise positios needed and the right players needed. I have faith that there is a lot going on behind closed doors and we’ll all be in for a very pleasent surprise.
My take on things so far:
Watkins – good to go for, however I’m on the Samatta and Big Wes coming back on absolute peak form wagon, I truly believe it.
Raschica – Honestly aoart from youtube I have zero knowledge on him and we no what you tube can make a player look like: Tonev (shivers)
Benahma – An absolute must for me, my second pick of the bunch, jesus I wish I had the choice
Buendia – 1st choice by far and away, a must, top player in a shit side remind you of anyone?
Eduardo – Mmm again not knowledgable enough in his capabilities
Really don’t think we need full backs bu Cash looks an exciting prospect so why not, plays his hear out that lad and seen nothing but positive words from Forest Fans, sound bunch them lot and a club I respect.
Henry, cant see the point, understand the cover for Targett but Taylor is literally a left full back Messi.
Don’t even mentione a new GK, Steer and Nyland are more than okay for me.
Am I missiing anyone?
Bit long but wnated to come back with some topics of convo 🙂 hope you’re all well fellas
Blimey, seems like you wouldn’t mind sticking with the side we have now 🙂
We can’t rely on Samatta coming good, even though I think he’s the better bet of the two and Wesley is out til Xmas anyway, by the looks of it.
As for LB, I’d like to see an improvement on Targett, let alone cover. His positioning is piss poor. Actually, until he learns the game better I wonder if there would be any room in pushing him up to left mid or even left winger, finally allowing Grealish to play the 10 we all think is his best game?
As for your comments about Taylor, well yep, you’re definitely looking to create conversation there 🙂
Sorry your post got modded, but keep posting and hopefully the next one will come out as the latest.
Nice to hear from you again fella.
Hopefully they’ll be some surprise deals that come out of nowhere – we need to be able to scout players beyond Brentford / the championship & last seasons relegated teams. Good value is out there but you need to put the groundwork in with research and analysis of the ‘lesser’ european leagues
What about Messi as the surprise imagine Messi and grealish together it could transform villa overnight, which one would defences try and mark out of the game? Look at the shirt sales and when fans allowed back the place would be packed.its good to dream but if Burnley mentioned why not villa maybe that’s what the club is working on 😂
i do believe if we are going to convince grealish to stay we need a big name or 2. My brother suggested Aaron Ramsey (not going to well in Italy) or somebody like that.
Interesting
Aston Villa target Ollie Watkins has been left out of Brentford’s squad for their friendly game against Oxford United, as his move seemingly edges closer.
“Don’t even mention a new GK, Steer and Nyland are more than okay for me.”
I have to ask the question of Bosnich’s Dealer and that is “Did you actually watch any Villa games last season, or just the league cup semi-final against Leicester City ? Because that is the only time Nyland looked anything like half decent. He is, in my opinion, and it is, after all, only an opinion, the worst keeper I have ever seen between the posts at Villa. In all honesty, it would make a change if he actually remained between the posts rather than sat in the stand, clutching the ball.
The only thing that you can guarantee with Nyland is that his howler against Sheffield United will be the subject of a ‘What happened next ?’ slot on a future edition of A Question of Sport. Even on his debut, in the Championship, he managed to kick the ball against a Wigan player for them to score.
I do rate Jed Steer but he lacks height and, let’s be honest, if he can’t dislodge Nyland from the number one jersey then there is no hope for him.
I was born in 1966 by the way, not thatit counts for anything.
Assuming that we are actually interested in Callum Wilson then, IF reports are to be believed Newcastle look to be better placed by offering Ritchie in part exchange.
6 weeks since the season ended and 10 days till it starts again.
And yet we have not managed to sign even one player!
taking into account some time for holidays etc
But does that say something about the people at the club who’s job it is to get players in and negotiate etc
are not good enough at there jobs?
Time will tell as is the story with Villa every single bloody time!
It’s one of the other isn’t it, either we are putting a great deal of thought into this and sticking to what we want or our negotiators are just failing on every opportunity.
Hadn’t realised the start of the new season is just 10 days away although the transfer window is open until 5th October with a further two weeks for domestic transfer (but not between EPL clubs).
The real issue is the ever shortening period within which to integrate new players into the side – when we actually get around to buying some!
Third Generation Villain, very frustrating I know but I don’t think they are that stupid, or are they ? I’ve said that very same question a few posts back, I can only think that the club knows players ability to fall in line on how Smith plays the game. Has to be a reason or we are back to square one in struggling to find a way to compete with other teams. The other answer is are we playing silly games with fans by making us wait and see to get bums on seats and buy merchandise. Either way annoying with little time to go. Come on Villa tell us what’s happening.
Playing PR games is all good and well but when the entire league are bringing players in and we have done nothing, the team that survived by the skin of its teeth, it’s actually just getting us very very concerned
Sky reporting deal done for Matty Cash – £14m rising to £16m with add-ons. Medical tomorrow but hasn’t yet agreed personal terms.
Is this the start of an avalanche? 🙂
He agreed personal terms a couple of days ago, the fee was the issue which seems to have been sorted.
Guest – differing reports on personal terms depending which one you read. Sky saying not but Brum Mail saying they are agreed.
You pays your money and takes your choice 🙂
I’ve heard 28 million for Watkins, is that the stumbling block I wonder?
Brave move 28mil for Watkins if true. Fingers crossed it pays off but I personally think he will need a season to adjust. But is Wilson any better, I don’t think so. I wouldn’t like to be the man signing these cheques I know that much.
£28m – we’ve been burnt with expensive Championship strikers before.
Media quoting £30m for Wilson but at least he does have a decent EPL scoring record and made the England squad last season.
£58m for the two or go and buy one seriously decent striker?
I doubt we’ll pay £28m for anybody, just can’t see that happening whilst we want to cover a few positions, and we definitely need two strikers, my guess would be the plan is to try and get Wilson and Watkins for between 20 – 25 each and use Wilson upfront with Watkins on the wing.
Manchester United have signed Netherlands midfielder Donny van de Beek from Ajax for £35m, plus £5m in add-ons, on a five-year contract. Could they have lost interest in Grealish?
Certainly looks like it.
Or maybe the interest was never really there in the first place? It wouldn’t surprise me.
IMHO no club is going to pay £80m for Grealish and we do have a couple of hard nosed owners – move over Levy 🙂