First off, I want to say that I am of course totally elated that we earned promotion.
Everyone at work was asking how chuffed I was and I’ve only known most of them for the last few weeks.
It’s because I’m always going on about the Villa, hence everyone knows I’m a fan.
But I commented that I felt strangely calm after the game was over and I’ll expand on that shortly.
First off, while Sky thought it was a good game, I didn’t think so.
I think the occasion got to both teams, which is no surprise as it often happens, but I just felt neither side were as creative as they have been this season.
I’m not alone either as the one Villa fan working with me agreed that we’d been below our best for the last four or five games.
Still, there’s no doubt we were the better side overall, albeit with a worrying last 10 minutes or so and there were no complaints from my Derby supporting mates who said we deserved it.
I don’t think any player stood out, but El Ghazi did well, along with McGinn and Hourihane too, who struck me by actuallly getting stuck into a few tackles. Still, it’s a team game and overall we were better than theirs.
I still think it’s a terrible way to lose out though, as we know to our cost last season.
So why was I so calm then?
Well, I was actually that calm, I lay down to contemplate what I was going to write on here and promptly fell asleep, staying the same until it was time to get up for work; a full eleven hours!
It’s the realisation that getting promoted is only a small part of the job.
While the win was great, my thoughts immediately shifted to asking how are we going to stay up next season? and contrary to some Villa fan who was on the radio this morning predicting we’ll be in the top four next season, the reality is we’ll be lucky to survive.
Which then led me to thinking about who we need to keep and let go.
Who is good enough to play in the Premier league?
And this is where you’re going to have to forgive me, as although it might seem I’m being ruthless in my assessment, I just think I’m being realistic.
In my opinion, Jack Grealish will be good enough, as will John McGinn, who I think will set the league alight in the same way Milner did.
And then I have to think harder.
Mings makes the cut, but will have to be less sloppy, as he won’t have the time he’s been given in the Championship. Hause maybe makes it too.
Taylor simply isn’t good enough and although he’s improved lately will not make the grade in the Prem. Elmohamady isn’t Prem standard either.
We’ll definitely need a quality DM, as I’m guessing Jedinak will leave, as will Bjarnason, although Whelan might have done enough to get another season.
I have serious doubts about Hourihane too, at Prem level, the same as Lansbury, who can’t get a look in as it stands (I know he’s been injured).
El Ghazi will either be brilliant or utter rubbish, I can’t decide.
Adomah is done and Green still isn’t ready, so we’ll need a better RW.
Kodjia just about makes it because he is decent backup across the front.
And I have my doubts about Abraham. He’s a good player, but I don’t think he’s come of age just yet and couldn’t see him getting us more than 10 goals in the Prem., which is decent, but would it keep us up?
I haven’t massively analysed things, but it’s more a gut feeling.
Hence, it seems obvious to me, we need a big clearout and that’s without all the deadwood the club carries.
Of course, we’re going to have to keep some of the players I’ve mentioned, as we don’t have a bottomless pot of money to do a Man City type spending spree and FFP probably won’t allow it anyway.
But we’re going to have to spend some very serious money whichever way you look at it.
I saw a Daily Mail article today, which suggests Norwich and Sheffield will have around £20 million to spend, while we’ll have £50 million.
If that’s the case, we’re all relegated before we start, in my opinion.
What does an average striker cost these days?
There’s the argument that Fulham spent £100 million plus and changed it up too much, yet they’re still relegated.
But do we think they’d have had a hope in hell of staying up if they didn’t go for it? I don’t.
And yes, Wolves have done extremely well, but they were head and shoulders above the rest of the Championship last season and we all know about the level of player they brought in. Which means they’ll prove to be a bit of a one-off. Indeed, if you look at history, they are a bit of a one-off, as the majority of promoted clubs go straight back down.
The good news is Dean Smith has a good eye for a bargain.
But he’s going to have to go some to bring in lower league players who are able to perform at Prem level.
It’s going to be very interesting times in the next few months.
I’m not quite sold on the idea BFR, at a guess buying another keeper is to keep player’s on their toes, we have Steer who hasn’t put a foot wrong and got us to the premiership by saving the first two saves, now buying Cardiff goalie.I’d like to understand that move. We need a right Back, a striker, plus a midfield defender. Am I wrong in thinking that. Open to being educated.
No, you’re not wrong Bill – although not sure on the RB as we have acquired the elusive Fred Gilbert from Caen 🙂 plus Elmo so do we need another?
I was surprised Bill on the GK but there has been talk of Kalinic going out on loan and I suspect we might sell Nyland or keep him as third choice GK with Steer / Ethridge fighting for No1. Don’t know a lot about him – is he any improvement on what we have in Steer / Kalinic?
We defo need a LB and, at least 2 CB’s – probably 3 with Elphick going. One would hope Mings and Hause (who can also play LB) will join us. Agree on the other positions, perhaps add an attacking mid, and left and right wingers (El Ghazi and Jota?). That’s a heck of a lot of new players – I read somewhere that Villa are expected to sign 10 in the window and I expect some more outgoings – Hogan for instance?
Then the question is which, if any, of the kids are ready to step up to the first team squad – Green and Davis plus?
Busy, busy …….
Agreed, BFR.
Bill, Hitch;
I’m working with a Cardiff fan and he seriously reckons he’s worth £25 mill!
£25m – sounds similar to Villa (fans?) rating JG at £60m 🙂 on that basis £10m is probably a fair valuation in today’s stupid transfer market.
If you read the comments posted by Swansea fans on the B’ham mail article, they’re all content to see him leave for 10m and let their reserve keeper, Smith go in. Several mentioned his weakness in distribution and thinks there are question marks over his quality to succeed in the Prem. I’d rather stick with who we have if that’s what we’re going for.
According to my Cardiff workmate, he was their player of the year (in the Prem, don’t forget) so those comments seem a little odd?
Everyone is entitled to their opinion I guess. I’m not saying he’s a bad player – just saying that maybe he’s not exactly what we want, but maybe he’s the best we could attract right now. And I can see a strategy that maybe he’s tackling players that he’s worked with before, to overcome the squad harmony and integration problems that would exist from hiring unknown quantities. I do know he was the 4th best keeper in the Prem for Fantasy League… I don’t doubt he’s a solid keeper but I just query whether he’s needed.
That’s a very interesting point Texas – Dean Smith preferring to buy players that he has worked with before – maybe in preference to better options for the Prem? If so that is worrying!
I don’t know about the lad’s distribution but whenever I watched MOTD, he would be making outrageous, Bosnich style saves. If he was 4th best in the Prem’ with a relegated team, that says a lot. He would’ve been busy! I’m sure Cutler can help improve his kicking, if it’s as bad as they say, which I doubt.
Can you imagine Nyland’s goal being peppered by the likes of Aguero, Salah, and Aubameyang? We’d be breaking another record with 10 in it – a 10-0 loss to surpass the hammering Ipswich suffered to Utd in ’95! Don’t think Kalinic is ready for it either. So a proven Prem’ goalie is necessary, IMO…
Hitch, don’t worry about Smith’s apparent preferences for players he knows. I think that’s a good thing and makes perfect sense. It’s not all about ‘talent’ (look at Ozil and Pogba); Smith will want players with the right attitude, work ethic and personality. Basically, he’s looking for 10 more John McGinns! I’d rather that than lazy, ‘talented’ prima donnas who will destroy the magnificent team spirit Smith and his team have built in a few months. Trust in Smith!
Wasn’t there originally similar concerns expressed over Steer’s distribution? Certainly not evident after returning to the side. Agree about Nyland.
Tbf both Smith and Purslow have been clear about the type of player they want which accords with your points BFR. I’ve stopped worrying 🙂
Yes, Texas, opinions will always vary and that’s a good thing.
Tbh, I don’t know anything about Everidge, because I didn’t care less about the Prem because we weren’t in it 🙁
As for Smith, well I’d suggest everyone is more happy with people they know.
But i’d guess it’s more that Smith knows they have the right attitude and approach. And he feels he can improve them.
Where Fulham probably went wrong, is in trying to integrate players they knew little about personally.
And anyway, much has been made about Pitarch having a lot of input and Smith basically being in charge of coaching them.
So all this “Smith wants” probably won’t mean as much as we’re being told as part of all the speculation.
My guess is Smith will put forward names he knows (at decent prices), like Jota and the rest of the committee will strongly recommend the bits of quality that we will surely bring in too.
He’s not your everidge player Badger – he was twice MoM in games Cardiff lost. I think he is a great keeper and I am not a fan of Steer except now at Spot kicks. Etheridge – a keeper with a full season of facing Prem attackers is just what we need.
I hope they announce the signings of Mings and Hause soon! Not to mention El Ghazi – I think he has Mahrez levels of potential (very similar player IMO) and he could really relish the PL. Hope we try for Axel but it doesn’t sound like Utd will want to play. But why not test them with 18-20 milllion?
Alan Nixon of the Stun reckons Mings and Jota are definitely on, but Everidge is all about the fee.
No mention of Hause.
Badger, there was a piece in the Brum Mail towards the end of May saying that Villa had secured the signing of Hause as their first transfer but since then it’s been quiet on the subject – jumped the gun? Villa were reported as having an option to buy as part of his loan agreement – perhaps they aren’t yet sure whether to exercise it?
https://www.expressandstar.com/sport/football/aston-villa/2019/06/05/aston-villa-face-decision-on-move-for-wolves-defender-kortney-hause-as-deadline-looms/
‘Talk of the devil’ – update on Hause situation.
Just one more snippet hidden away in a Brum Mail regurgitation is that (according to the Mail) the Jota / Gardner swop deal ‘is being scrutinised by the EFL but is expected to go through’. I also read that Villa are subject to a ‘soft transfer embargo’. Any thoughts?
What is a soft transfer embargo?
No idea 🙂
As best as I can make out it means we can’t recruit new players without approval from the EFL (as it appears we are still under their jurisdiction). We can sell players and we can renew contracts. It may be that the EFL want to be satisfied that we are not in a major breach of FFP for the three years to the end of 2018/19 but as we haven’t published accounts and are not likely to for some time I’m at a loss to fully understand it. It may, however, explain why we haven’t been able to sign any players ….. yet.
It seems to me highly likely that we are going to sell and lease back Villa Park to NSWE Ltd.
Sky now reporting the Gardner / Jota swop
This from the Sun, and we all know about the Sun they never get it right.
ASTON VILLA have landed Jota for £4million from bitter local rivals Birmingham City with Gary Gardner heading in the opposite direction to St Andrews as part of the deal.
Villa boss Dean Smith is a big fan of the talented 27-year-old who played for him at Brentford, before Blues paid a club-record £6million to sign him two years ago.
We’re going to hear all sorts of guff over the next weeks and months about who Villa has on their radar. I’ll only believe it when I see them holding the shirt up.
Smith has to tread a delicate tightrope, get too few players in who can hack it in the Prem and do a Cardiff, or too many and do a Fulham. We are lucky in that we have a quality spine to the team with Mings (so long as we can get him), McGinn and Jack.
I don’t mind if we only get a few in, where we most obviously need them, and then seeing how we go. All we need to do is survive the first season and we can build from there.
Also don’t mind if Smith gets in some players he knows. If he feels that they can slot into the team and do the job in the Prem then let him try.
PS I saw Etheridge play on TV quite a few times last season and he’s a really good goalie. I think Steer did a great job this season but Etheridge would definitely be an improvement.
According to reports we’ve completed the Jota deal and also activated the Hause option to buy. Apparently Blues fans think we’ve been ripped off – time will tell.
We’ve been ripped off? They’ve just signed a guy who seems to have had a 50 year contract and done absolutely nothing in that time.
My point exactly BFR.
Jota signing confirmed. Welcome to the Villa – now you’ve signed for a real team.
UTV
Smith on Jota: “I worked with Jota at Brentford. He’s a superb, talented player and Birmingham signed him as their record transfer.
“I’m really happy to have him back working with us. He’s got great ability, great balance and a great eye for both goals and assists.”
That’s good enough for me!
4 million plus Gardner, so he’s cost us about 3 million then! Sorry, couldn’t resist. 😉
I haven’t read a jot about it on this blog, and can’t believe it would pass without comment, so maybe it did not make the press in Brum. Randy Lerner picks up another £30 million, presumably only from Xia, because of Villa’s promotion witihn 3 years of his sale.
I hope it is a marker for the US-China trade talks!
I did read that OLL but chose to ignore it as to comment on it might be seen to dignify Lerner’s stewardship! I hope that, as you imply, the £30m comes out of Xia’s pocket but I suspect that the truth is far less acceptable. I suppose one has to accept that ‘deferred overage’ considerations can help deals across the line – but does Lerner deserve it – emphatically no. Notwithstanding, the positive (if there is such a thing) is that it’s unlikely to have any impact on the FFP calculations.
I’m sure our owners would be aware of any such arrangements and make provision for them in the deal with Xia – of course we don’t know any of the ‘small print’ and are responding to media headlines!