So I’m over my massive disappointment after yesterday’s poor showing.
Actually I’m very sanguine, probably because I saw what was coming and wasn’t at all convinced that we’d win the game.
It still annoys me that we did exactly what we shouldn’t have done, but oh well; it’s in the past.
Which leaves me asking the same question everybody has been asking, in do we keep Bruce or sack him?
I haven’t looked around any other Villa sites yet, but it seems the consensus on here is that he should stay.
I believe that’s sensible.
I know that a few of you won’t agree with that, but as much as I believe he cost us the game yesterday, so it’s undeniable that we’re in a much better position than when he first came to the club.
You might well say that “we bloody well ought to be, after the money we’ve spent”, but if we look at it from a wider angle, has Bruce actually spent much?
I’d have to re-trace exactly who he’s bought, to be honest, to answer that one.
The important part here, is that Bruce has called out the players with a bad attitude (think McCormack) or dropped those that needed dropping (Gabby), where it seemed previous managers couldn’t.
There’s one bloke in charge of the team now and that’s quite rightly the manager, himself.
He needs a chance just for that.
The Birmingham Mail has made a point about how Bruce has gone a long way to restoring the unity between the players and the fans.
I think that’s a very valid point. I’d never known such a bad player/fan relationship in all my years.
But that’s not enough in itself.
I still have major issues with how Bruce sets the side up.
He was way too defensive early on in his tenure, with the personnel he had available, but I’m of the opinion that he saw this was needed, if only to help create stability. I can’t argue with that, if that’s how he saw it.
Lately though, I think his defensive approach has cost us.
Certainly I thought so against Boro and thought so yesterday.
Which really makes we wonder if he has what it takes to push us on.
I’m not convinced.
Yet, even with all my doubts, I think Bruce deserves another crack next season.
We’re going to lose some very decent players, like Snodgrass and Hutton.
(Regardless of any speculation, we will NOT lose Grealish. Xia will not let it happen and I’m willing to take bets).
And we’re going to have to introduce some of the kids on a more regular basis.
Who knows these kids better than Bruce?
And while he might have been reluctant to play them this season, so I think with the constraints we’re under, he will give them more of a chance.
So we go with Bruce on another rolling one year contract.
And he gets until somewhere around November to prove that we can seriously challenge for the Championship title.
We will need to be top two though and that’s where I believe we might have a problem.
Look at the sides that have just been relegated from the Prem;
Swansea, Stoke and West Brom.
You may well think they’re all rubbish teams in the Prem
But they probably have way better squads than ours, when it comes to the championship.
And that’s where I struggle to see how we can go up next season, regardless of who the manager is.
But that’s for next season.
Comments
109 responses to “Ok, he messed up, imo, but Bruce stays.”
Thank you Gabby for the early memories…
Just want to add my thanks Badger to all those above. I know how much time and commitment running anything for the benefit of others can take. Well done mate.
Saturdays Final first half was so disappointing,
Not only on the basis that Villa never showed up but the refereeing has to be questioned.
Ryan Fredericks assault on Jack Grealish was there for all to see and a Myopic ref and his team couldnt see it!
Yes Stamping on another Player is ASSAULT!!!
Fredericks should have gone after 30 mins which
Could have turned the tie so easily over a large Wembley pitch thats energy sapping.
You rely on decisions to be made fairly but when you have 11 men and and a Ref that either doesnt see whsts going on or has been sent out with an agenda not to ruin the TV spectacle.
This wasnt a questionable hand ball decision
But serious foul play.
Grealish was being battered from Pillar to post and no wonder he reacted later on he was simply
Getting no protection.
That aside Fulham were the better side but i cannot forgive such poor Officiating.
I wonder if this will even be looked at by the FA?!
So Fredericks gets away Scot Free. They all go on their hols and this blantant act gets forgotten about. So much for Fair play!!
Fredericks resumes next season starting on day one without missing a game!!
Oh well FA watch this space!
This isnt over yet!
Also on the value of this game why no VAR?
You didnt even need it.
A ref watching Sky could have seen what went on!
Unbelievable really.
But this is football and it shows that theres a kind of stitch up going on where if it Man U in this position what would have happened then??
I just want to add one more point on the Bruce debate or, more specifically, last season and that is whilst, rightly, posters have pointed to the Bolton (which arguably should have been postponed and might have been but for Sky?) / QPR results as being a key turning point we shouldn’t forget the poor start (worse than Fulham) when we only won one of the first seven (think that’s right).
It’s also easy to overlook the fact that we lost Kodjia for (in reality) all the season and critically Grealish for the first half and then Adomah / Grealish and Terry were all injured for the away game at Fulham.
Their have been comments that Bruce is a ‘lucky’ manager – I’m not sure that’s entirely true.
ManU sniffing around Grealish according to The Sun. Great.
Comments still delayed Badger.
I found that out last night Bum bum I was programming my mobile for the internet and read this post,went onto my computer and could see some post was delayed from posters, they popped up at a later time.Hey ho.
Sorry Badger, but I think Grealish will go. He is our outstanding talent and can play at a much higher level. Pretty much any player at any club leaves if they want to. That applies to Man U, Liverpool etc so it applies to us.
I don’t think that says anything about Xia, just about the power players have and the influence of agents.
Like every other Villa fan I will be gutted if it happens, but I’m pretty much resigned to it.
DS , money talks I think he will be persuaded by his agent and the need to further his career, I don’t want him to go but its all down to him. I’d like to think there’s a Gerrard in him. Nath your not a Tart mate time will tell.
And so it’s begun, tuttomercatto with a story that some ex Inter Milan and Sparta Prague coach has held discussions about the Villa job. While they don’t seem the most reliable and the story is probably bull, I’d expect more stories like this while Bruce’s future is up in the air. And with the player rebuild we’ll already need, surely we deserve a definitive answer on Bruce’s position sooner, rather than later.
On the flip side, Bruce being linked with Leeds and Swansea in other articles. Make what you will of the reports, but I would hope this is all sorted ASAP.
Can’t blame Jack if he goes. Who could possibly hold it against him? Just hope we get an absolute wad for him. Terry’s influence on him has been massive. Obviously got him to sort his priorities out. How many Billy Big Bollocks have we seen throw early promise away ‘cus of a big head? Probably put an extra £15m on his value the way he’s played this season. And feeling a bit Langfordesque, we WILL go up next season. Bruce hasn’t just steadied the ship, he stopped it from sinking altogether!
Sad if he goes, but I would rather see him reach his potential somewhere else rather than be wasted in the Championship.
According to the Birmingham Mail, the club “needs to find around £40m-£45m from player sales and wage cuts to fall in line with Financial Fair Play” next season. Time for some creative accounting…
Overall, I think it really depends on if the club can offload the likes of Richards and McCormack off the books to see what assets we can keep, ie Grealish.
So far the club has freed up wages from Gil, Gabby, Terry, Hutton, Samba, Bunn, plus all our other loans – Johnstone, Snodgrass, Grabban, Onomah, Tuanzebe.
I’m assuming there are some other players who will be looking to leave the club, ie Birkir, Lansbury, or Hogan, due to lack of match time. So who knows, I would be curious to know what sort of dent this makes on the FFP amount. I also would be interested to know if Gollini is welcomed back – he’s still 2 years younger than Johnstone and showed just as much promise. Not sure the club can afford anyone better as things stand.
I guess not… reports now saying Gollini is being sold to Atlaanta for 3.5m
your kidding that would be a loss, but its brilliant news if true. that was another mistake off the books. we need to stop making long big mistakes offer shorter contracts on less wages.
Financial fallout
Aston Villa will need to find around £40m-£45m from player sales and wage cuts to fall in line with Financial Fair Play, Birmingham Live understands.
A football finance expert has explained how Villa’s failure to win promotion back to the Premier League this term has left them seriously counting the cost this summer.
The claret and blues may have to sell prized asset Jack Grealish to cover costs and there’s no chance of turning any of the loan signings into permanent deals.
“The FFP black hole is between £40m and £45m,” a source told us.
“Villa have gambled with expensive players on big wages but there will need to be a reality check this summer.”
Boss Steve Bruce admitted that cuts will need to be made.
When asked if players would be sold, Bruce replied:
“Yes.
“This season has been difficult, financially.
“We understand, or I have understood, about Financial Fair Play.
“But the discussions will need to be held above me to say what we have or haven’t got.”
The powers-that-be are in the process of holding those talks.
Saturday’s defeat against Fulham in the play-off final is still very raw but the club are starting to moving forward.
These things take time, of course, and more will be revealed in the times ahead as Villa come to terms with another season in the Championship.
Elsewhere, a report was also published today by Swiss Ramble – a business & football blog- which highlighted some of the problems Villa are facing up to.
We need to hear quickly from the board regarding Bruce’s position so we can nip in the bud all the rumours surrounding him. FWIW I will be surprised if he moves on, because apart from money incentives we don’t have any competition for his services, and I think Wyness will want him to stay on. Hopefully we can offload McCormack and Richards, even if they are free transfers to reduce wage bill. I hope we can keep Bjarnsson over Whelan or Jedinak. I also have a gut feeling a new contract for Hutton with reduced wages will see him staying. Next few weeks should hopefully see a clearer picture of what is in store for next season. Bringing through the talented youth has to happen next season for FFP reasons alone. One consolation for staying in championship is that we will be on TV more. Trying hard to cheer myself up still. 😔 ps. Thank you badger for offering us the chance to vent our frustrations and opinions. Much appreciated.
i don’t have the clubs finances to hand. but i have seen a few experts assessment of the state of play. marvin has posted one of them quoting 40 million that we will have to find. now i do know the villa squad and i cant see any player, other than grealish that could fetch anything like them figures.
grealish is by far the best player and most coveted player on our books. the only hope we have is other clubs come in and bid for our junk like richards mccormack etc i just don’t see that happening.
so taking fair play into account, we need to sell don’t we? plus their is a small matter of reducing wages. the gamble has backfired in a grand way. players bought on high transfers like hogan mccormack and kodjia plus on their high wages. means no other club will touch them with a barge pole
we are fooked, in short we are in need of a miracle. maybe its not all that bad and i am being melodramatic. never been called a tart before that did tickle me somewhat
i did not see gollini being sold, since he was never starting for them. so carlos gil and gollini gone if 40 mill is correct figure, still leaves us with 30 plus mill.
the thing my =mates were saying about it earlier once other clubs know your in this situation. nobody will pay you the going rates for your players. they will wait until your really desperate and offer just enough on the last days of window, so selling two really early helps loads.
I don’t see there is any need to panic here. The £40M figure is inclusive of wages. Players on £40K is around £2.25M a year. Transfer fees on top and we will get there or thereabouts. Xia is entitled to inject some cash as well, and there are ways and means for him to support via sponsorship same as at Man City. Of course, that depends on whether Xia wants to do that. As I’ve said, Grealish is likely to go as part of that and he will be a significant chunk if a few teams compete for him.
Finally, the penalty for transgression is a fine. Again, Xia can handle that if he is as wealthy as supposedly.
The real issue is what state we end in from a team/players point of view. This is all why we needed to get promoted last season. If Bruce couldn’t do it with that squad I would like to see the reasoning behind any view that he will do it next season. Clue- he has no chance.
It’s almost impossible for us (or anyone else other than the club) to calculate what needs to be done under FFP rules. Don’t forget they are on a three year rolling loss basis so we are still reaping the ‘rewards’ of the losses in our last Prem season.
Another complication for example is how transfer fees are accounted for (the payment terms between clubs are not relevant – that’s cash flow not P&L). A players fee can be depreciated by 100% over the length of their contract. So, for instance McCormack cost c£12m and, I think he was given a five year contract so, he is a cost of around £2.5m per year plus wages (if a 4 year contract £3m per year plus wages). Let’s assume 4 years so to date we have depreciated his cost by £6m – now here’s the rub – if we sell him then we account for the whole fee received in the current year’s accounts but any losses also accrue. So to improve the financial position on McCormack the difference between the amount we receive can’t be less than £6m – £3m plus wages. So if he’s on £2m per year £40k per week then a transfer fee of £1m would be break even in the current year’s accounts. If he’s on a five year contract we would need a higher transfer fee to break even.
Long contracts are great accounting wise as long as the player performs and maintains his transfer value – otherwise they are a millstone.
Anyone still with me?
Yes I get it . Player sales are included in the FFP calc. I don’t think depreciation has any effect. I believe it’s just how much you spend (or receive) in a season on net transfer fees. That does mean that they are taken at full value when they happen. I think if we do the necessary trading this summer we will be OK from a FFP perspective.
From a playing perspective I am way more concerned.
DS – Depreciation is a factor according to the long, complex and boring article I read on how FFP works – that’s why we are seeing longer player contracts than previously.
Actually, think you are right.
Oh, yes, it’s massively important.
Only it’s called amortisation, not depreciation (although depreciation is probably a better word).
And while there are set guidelines, they imo, are not set in stone.
Hence they can be varied to suit the books, as long as things add up in the longer term and can be explained.
Even if I’m wrong there, you can always make the books look exactly how you want, as long as it’s in the short term.
Don’t forget, if on the face of it, we haven’t got a pot to piss in, we are not going to be bent over when we want to buy/loan a player 😉
Games within games, but yes, I’d accept we don’t have much to play with.
we are all just guessestimating and your right about the payments on every transfers. but its interesting listening to words from bruce saying he will have to lose some. he doesn’t mean terry or the loans aswell
the reports which are floating around, they are saying they seen the books and its severe. the overall running of the club wages etc needs to be reduced. it says in our 1st year of championship we were losing 800k a week and that was with a 40 million parachute payment.
we are just going have to wait it out, hopefully they can sell off the lesser quality players first. two seem to have been sold, if they can sell off the returning loans. maybe we might only have to sell adomah
lastly its the three strikers we bought to score the goals to win promotion they must be on a fair packet between them. mccormak / kodjia / hogan. who is going to hazard a guess at their wages for a year ?? i would be interested in that figure, because that must be about the deficit we need to find. because i doubt we can sell them.
Bruce is not the man to play youth nor attacking football.
The high earning experienced players gamble has failed.
Lets move on.
Dean Smith or similar please
On my previous piece when I said ‘break even’ I meant to ensure that the cost of McCormack on the books in the next financial year is no greater than if we kept him. We would need a fee in excess of £6m to make a ‘profit’ and to free up the cost of his wages.
the team that finished 4th last year was mostly down to grealish, i will be called fruit cake not a tart for saying that. but its bloody true. you take grealish out off villa and we are box standard. we would have finished midtable at best last season,
he is so damn good. he was the heart beat of the team. every game the ball went through him. he was pulling the opposition ragged, he makes others look good. you just need to run in good positions and he will find you on the move,
thats why i thought hogan would be a hit with him. but they hardly played together. hogan does make them deft little dashes behind players. his movement is really good. they seemed a good pairing. I WOULD have thought
Hence losing Grealish for the first half of the season was a massive blow. If Fulham had lost Cairney (sic) or Sessgnon (sic) for half a season ………
Apologies but I can’t spell LOL
Kodjia’s injury didn’t help either…
the delay on your post appearing, is like seeing the answer before your question appears.its doing my head right in. who knows we all might wake up tomorrow and richards has been sold lol maybe not
Unfortunately we have to wait this one out – But without Grealish and Snodgrass I think we are a mediocre mid table side, I think if we have to sell Jack we are really in the brown stuff.
Agree on Grealish but we do, hopefully, have Andre Green to come back into the side although that would require Adomah swoping wings
Your right Saddened but it could force him to start using coming of age players, I think he’s been playing safe now for months and steps back from using them, I’ve been reading what your on about Hitch, and think I’ve got what your saying, this FFP that been hitting us should get better as months go bye?, we would have reduced wage, and sold by January’s window.to use what we have for the run in, is that right.?
It should Bill but it’s going to be a long haul – maybe up to three years to completely steady the ship financially (that’s a complete guess) and selling Grealish is going to be difficult to resist if a massive offer comes in (I hear what you say Badger but Leicester with the Mahraz money?).
The really galling thing to me is whilst we can’t afford to keep McCormack we probably can’t afford to sell him unless we can get an offer north of £3m or so. I can see one of Hogan / Kodjia going but again we will need to receive hefty offers to improve the books. We might even see some ‘surprising’ departures – Adomah, Chester etc. – pretty depressing from Xia’s words although the positive would be he seems to be in for the long haul and on the race of it is a consummate businessman.
Those who have been crying out to see the youngsters play will get their wish next season and, frankly, I don’t see us being strong enough to challenge for promotion again in the short to medium term.
Hope I’m wrong.
*face of it
https://www.avfc.co.uk/News/2018/05/30/club-statement-dr-tony-xia-on-future-plans
Well it’s official JT has left and I wish him well. I suppose it was always going to happen given his wages. Also the chairman has made a statement which doesn’t really offer anything new. No mention of Bruce and his coaching staff continuing next season, just a big thank you to them for creating unity at the club.
I’d beg to differ. I think Xia is having a proper think about this situation and we’ll find out soon enough. It’s really very ambiguous and open to all sorts of interpretation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44308522
Never thought I’d say it, but thanks John Terry, you did us proud, led by example, reminded our dressing room how to give a shit and fight for the club. Ta!