Hitch has submitted the following post for us to think about and comment on.
Cheers, Hitch;
It’s really getting depressing at VP and although I thought the hand ball (penalty) against us at Leicester was a bit harsh and finished us off, we do look embarrassingly poor.
Getting relegated isn’t the end of the world as we were probably promoted a year too soon but I do worry whether the owners will lose patience and put the club up for sale, which would be a disaster; hopefully though they are in for the long haul. I see JG going in the summer but tbf it’s no good having one stand out player and a load of also rans as can be seen from his rapidly dipping performance levels – not that I’m blaming him for that. We do need to think carefully about future player investment though and balance the ‘moneyball’ approach with bringing in some quality late 20 or early 30 year olds with experience. We also need to bring some of our U23’s through. Frankly I can see us being in the Championship for a couple of seasons whilst we build a squad that can get us promoted and keep us in the EPL – Wilder has showed just how to do that without spending ridiculous amounts of money.
The big problem is who do we appoint as our manager? Do we keep Smith or do we look for someone else (and the thought that Terry might replace Smith doesn’t work for me!). I really don’t see a lot of point in replacing Smith on the basis that we’ll benefit from new manager bounce but it might make sense to bring someone in that can work with the group for a couple of months to get a good understanding of what is needed when we go into the summer transfer window. Either that or you keep faith with Smith a la Sean Dyche at Burnley. For me sacking Smith after we’re relegated makes no sense at all.
Final bit of waffle is around FFP. We’ve been cleared for the last three seasons by the EPL and I think we’ll be fine this season although expect the ground sale to rear its head again as I’m guessing the income has been deferred to the 19 /20 accounts. If we sell JG post 31st May which is Villa’s year end (and any other major sales), which is what will happen, then that income will all go into the 20/21 accounts and, as long as the finances are properly managed, that should get us through two EFL seasons and allow us to invest in new players.
Thanks for the post Hitch.
If Terry comes in as our manager, I think I’ll be apoplectic.
He’s done nothing to warrant it, as far as I can see and it seems he doesn’t have a clue on how to coach a defence.
I think it’ll be very difficult for the EFL to penalise us now that the EPL have cleared us.
Get Smith out and JT as well
Would agree with a lot of what Hitch has said. For me what l have seen this season is a championship player level team except for a few trying to complete in the PL and there are many reasons for this starting with DS’s involvement in players coming into VP. There must of been general agreement from DS and the senior management so collectively they are all to blame. I would say a full management change out is what would be required as a vast amount of money has been wasted on inexperienced players with no PL experience, with the current management structure would this change in the Championship?
It’s a big gamble to take and l don’t hold out much faith that DS and the team can turn this around for us to remain in the PL. Looking at the body language from the other night it would seem the players have given up the fight. Basic defending, commitment and belief were all missing. I also fear that DS will panic and bring in J Mc too soon and us fans we will expect far too much from J Mc.
I do believe behind the scenes the academy will deliver the right structure that will provide a good crop of players, but l feel we are still 3-5 yrs away until some sustainability is available for the long term.
Sacking DS after the Chelsea game if we don’t win may provide a short term surge which could keep us in the PL. For me many of our players currently have lost their way and l don’t think they will respond to DS’s commitment to succeed in this league. I really do feel for DS a life long villa fan that is desperate to see success at the club but his lack of experience in the PL has been clearly visible in tactical planning and ability to change things on the field.
“He’s a great fella and superb at the job. The owners and I felt in December that it was really important that you all know that Dean is very central to our long-term vision.“ Purslow’s comments last month suggests that Smith is there for the long run.
Good shout Jordo, I’m pretty in favour of what your saying, I think also Holte66 reminding us of what was said on Smith’s term in Villa Park, Dean Smith doesn’t have the know how or experience to manage a big club like Villa, I think we are stuck with him for a very long time. Something has gone on at Villa but been swept under the carpet for now. We do have two players that don’t belong in the team Guilbert and Taggartt, both are slow on the uptake as regards defending, Minns being court out on possession , could be he’s unsure over what our defence incapable of defending. Plus his hesitation on the ball at times, my minds made up I’m afraid Smith has had his time at Villa Park and should go now.lets face it its been wrong from the start with mistakes week after week, im for pulling the plug on him now.
Bill, I’m in the ‘mugwump’ camp sitting firmly on the fence!
I’m not calling for Smith’s head but it seems to me that if the owners do feel a change is needed it makes more sense to do it now rather than wait until the end of the season – whatever the outcome might be.
Logic suggests that a new manager would benefit from working with the players and assessing the needs of the squad for a couple of months (prior to the summer transfer period) whichever division we start in next season. And maybe we’d get lucky with a bonus of new manager bounce!
What I think is that they will stick with Smith for good or ill and the real test will be how he copes during the first half of next season.
JT is a different issue – lots of rumours swirling around so who knows what the truth is – but if he is working against the best interests of the club to further his own ambition then he should be on his bike.
As long as the owners stick with us the one bright spark is that I believe we are financially secure for the medium term.
The problem with this Hitch is it restricts manager choice. Not many managers will leave a club at this stage of the season. Maybe Allardyce to see if he can organise and motivate for the last few games of the season, but I’m sure most of us don’t see him as anything other than this. It would be easier to line up a manager to join us straight after the end of the season.
Agree about the owners though.
Fair point DS but history suggests that owners don’t necessarily think like that. There are, of course, a number of managers not currently employed (some, one might suggest are not employable?) but would any be interested in coming to Villa?
I think what I’m trying to say is that it’s highly likely, given Purslow’s comments and Smith’s new contract, that the owners will stick with him at least through the first part of next season.
We shall see soon enough.
Bill for me there are only three PL players who can play at the required level ie Jack, John Mc and Tyrone and possibly a fourth would be Samatta who if given support could cut it. The rest are Championship standard with Elmo needing to hang his boots up!
This team lacks pace. The premier league in particular now needs pace in the side. The full backs are the greatest example of this for Villa – in a position where modern day it seems very important. Recruitment on this point is an issue.
We didnt sign enough quality upfront in the summer. I like samatta but that was a replacement for Wesley. Again a recruitment issue.
We had to replace a large amount of players but we spent 22m on an unknown striker- so you have to again question recruitment.
Who knows what involvement Smith has in that. All i can say is i am not convinved Wesley was his say so. Or trezeguet. One of luiz and nakamba i doubt either. So who really controls that? Wouldnt he had have maupay over an unknown wesley? If i was him yes.
For me Smith like a high press side at Brentford. Buying players from Belgium and alike as we did, were never going to be fit enough to do this. Similarly, the pre season was never going to be enough to get them to the level required. Perhaps why so many late goals early season?
Here’s a question,how many fans on here and wider world would like villa played games behind closed doors. I personally think it would be a disastrous as if the player’s can’t raise their game with the fans behind them then they have no hope with empty grounds,or would they actually play better without fans? which ever way it’s looking bleak. Any thoughts?
Anyone heard anything more about Leicester player’s may have the virus and the fact villa played them on Monday. I think it’s about time all matches be postponed for at least 3weeks.anyone agree?
Latest reports suggest that they do not have the virus but are staying at home as a precautionary measure with a ‘mild seasonal illness’.
Oh and anyway Villa players never got close enough to any Leicester player to be at risk 🙂
If true yes, Roy this Virus attacks the lungs in breathing, some silly sods are buying toilet rolls by the hundreds and its not bowels, can you believe this is not Villa but I have a pic of a book written in 1981 saying that a virus in 2020 will strike and kill thousands, and it will suddenly stop. How creepy is that. I think it will make all sports halt for a month soon .
Looks like he’s talking his way out of it,
Dean Smith believes home advantage will be key between now and the end of the season and wants Villa Park to continue to be “a special place” for his side.
Five of Aston Villa’s seven Premier League victories this term have come on home soil, while, in all competitions, Smith’s side have claimed an impressive six wins and a draw from their seven night matches under the lights in B6.
Six of the club’s 10 remaining league fixtures are at Villa Park, starting with Saturday’s encounter against Chelsea (ko 5.30pm).
And Smith is determined it remains a fortress for his side as they battle to climb the table away from danger.
Looking ahead to Saturday’s test, Villa’s Head Coach said: “Whoever we play, it’s going to be difficult, whether it’s Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Leicester… they’re difficult games.
“But they’re ones we should relish because it’s at Villa Park.
“We’ve got six games left at Villa Park.
“I think I’m right in saying from the evening games (so far this season) we’ve won six out of seven, under the lights at Villa Park.
“It’s a special place and we have to make sure that we keep it a special place.”
Smith continued: “We all want the same thing, which is success. And success this season is staying in the Premier League.
“So we have to work extremely hard to do that.
The man’s in cloud cuckoo land. He honstly thinks we’re safe, well Mr Smith seeing is believing. I hope your right..
Tbf Bill, what else can he say?
We’re f***ed so let’s plan for selling players and being in the Championship 🙂
No two ways about that Hitch, we are fx*ked, its about time he tried our 21 + youths . VILLA Park is not a good place to start you way in life, one player brought in over 3-4 years could be longer than that. when was it last that you and I felt this year we will be a footballing side, bumped into my next door neighbour tonight he couldn’t stop laughing what can you say to a West ham supporter?we’re a joke to football. We have a manager done nothing in his playing days running a once great footballing side going nowhere. It hurts,.
just because a club are falling short on their season goals. does not mean its soley down to the manager. i don’t know why we are falling short, but i have a good idea after i also have been put through the same misery as all watching the season unfold.
if we can say without doubt that smith brought in all the seaosn signings. then i will concede its down to him we are were we are. but i am not sure the players he signed are his players. i heard many times its a committee to sign off with smith having the final say.
we are falling short because imo we do not have enough quality in the defense. its obvious when you watch the games. this defense might work in the championship. but premiership the pace is quicker and skills are higher. these defenders are struggling every game. in championship we dominated the games. so our defense did not get overwhelmed like it has been all season. this is where the mistakes happen when players get stretched.
i always said we would survive by the skin of our teeth, after the last game even i think that goal is too far ahead of us. 17th thou still has to be the aim, home form might be the saviour, because at home our defence is less pressured.
finally the players we recruited in the summer were the highest quality that we could afford, barring in mind we had to replace 11 or so. these players might become premiership. but our gamble looks like failing because they are not ready today. plus they where thrown together and never gelled. but the biggest reason we are going to fail is because we make too many errors in games. look back in the games you can see errors cost us many points. points lost in ach game would have had us in a much healthier position.
i trust smith i would shoot the defense coach
Sorry but its down to DS it does not matter who signed the players they have got worse as the season has gone on, so there is no coaching going on to stop there mistakes and they have 8 months of coaching since the season started, thats down to DS and all the coaches.
You take away the cup games and our form is horrendous as well as the displays, and our only hope of stopping up, is the season gets cancelled until September and we start again, a new season with everyone on zero points.
that wont happen.
I dont care if DS goes now or at the end of the season, but he cant have another season. nice guy or not, villa fan or not
you have to bring in the best to succeed.
Very painful piece in The Metro this morning about us, but sometimes the truth hurts. Gavin Brown hits the nail on the head all too accurately on how our wonderful club is nothing more than a let down.
All Premier League fixtures postponed now!
More time to get McGinn match fit!!!!!!
Bum Bum , did it go ok on Modbro.
Or even mobdro.
It did indeed Bill. Thanks!!!
Badger and friends
We line within our lifetimes in uncharted waters. Coronavirus will have an indelible Impact on our society. Sadly as the prime minister stated we will loose loved ones.
Th Premier League rulers have shown themselves up for the money grabbing bunch of obnoxious individuals they are. Dither, delay and fudge. The Premier League will not restart on April 3rd. That’s it for the season. What they should be doing is showing leadership. The season ends now.
But what happens.
There cannot be relegation with virtually a quarter of fixtures remaining. Remember how Leicester the season before they won the Premiership were virtually dead and buried. Yet they went on an amazing and unexpected run. Who can say Norwich, Villa or Bournemouth cannot do it ( however unlikely we think it could occur).
The Premier League would not be able to relegate us without. I have no doubt Villa and the other two clubs would seek judicial intervention. Which brings us to what next.
I think two routes come to light. Either no promotion and relegation. Or the proposed German model of the top 2 or 3nfrom the league below being promoted and the following season 5 / 6 teams are relegated.
Either model benefits Villa. It gives us the chance to stay in the Premiership and buy the quality we need to stay up. Further, it allows Dean Smith a Chance to show what he can do with a better squad. If after a set number of games there is no improvement then he need to be dismissed and the new manager given enough time to turn it around. If Dean does hit the ground running I will cheer from the rafters.
It appears that cruel fate will hand Villa a life line.
As the oldest on the site I’d like to invite you all to my funeral. Err hang on I’ve just had a thought, I’m not going till Villa wins the league. I’m going to ask badger to post something from a book in 1981, this is creepy believe me.
And so say all of us Bill – just keep away from those cruises!
Nostradamus, The Bible – forecasts of plagues, doom and destruction.
Just like supporting the Villa 🙂
According to an online conspiracy theory, the American author Dean Koontz predicted the coronavirus outbreak in 1981. His novel The Eyes of Darkness made reference to a killer virus called “Wuhan-400” – eerily predicting the Chinese city where Covid-19 would emerge. But the similarities end there: Wuhan-400 is described as having a “kill‑rate” of 100%, developed in labs outside the city as the “perfect” biological weapon. An account with more similarities, also credited by some as predicting coronavirus, is found in the 2011 film Contagion, about a global pandemic that jumps from animals to humans and spreads arbitrarily around the globe.
Match off tomorrow then, another boring weekend. …
Actually Bill the naming of Wuhan in the book is not a lucky guess. Wuhan is where China has its chemical an biological warfare laboratories. Equivalent of Porton Down.here
O.L.L. I’m holding onto the theory that the virus is man made, I am aware that a chemical factory is outside Wuhan, could have been it escaped out of the laboratory, and the heads of states are hushing it up?. I don’t think it was a coincidence, more like the Russian incident to me. It’s only my theory
Smith is responsible. The crucial moment may have been the terms under which he took the job.
It happened to me once. The Board said they would instruct me how to do my job, whom I could employ AND set the target they wished me to achieve. I told them I would accept either but not both. If they set the target I wanted a free hand as to how it was to be done.
None of the ‘Personality’ managers, Clough, Pep, Sir Alex, Wenger etc will / did accept a ‘director of football’ assessing the players to be recruited.
Leave aside the recruits new to EPL for a moment. Everybody who watched football knew Targett could not defend – so he could be played wide midfield or as a winger but not at full-back. Everybody knew Hause could not defend on his own initiative, so could not play in a back 3. The players videos from their previous team were available if the club scouts had not reported. Heaton’s goal concession record in EPL put him in the bottom half of the table.
Now to the overseas imports. All evidence suggested Wesley was not a target man but a goal poacher, so he could not play as a lone striker – surely somebody watched him and saw that?
So there is a credibility gap between the known performance of some of the players brought in and what we needed. That has to be the manager’s responsibilty: either he did not notice – or he made what will prove to be the fatal mistake of imagining he could coach a different performeance into them.
i don’t think wesley is a smith signing, he might have said yes i will have him after his own strikers where knocked back. looks to me like he was out manoeuvred in some signings like douglas luiz another fantastic player from overseas he smith would not have considered had he not been forced too.
i don’t think that wesley is a bad player he was coming along nicely just before the injury. luiz is miles of premiership pace thou and wasn’t he 15 million well at least city have a buy back clause if THEY want to resign him 🙁 please please take him back much prefer bannan
It’s interesting that in football the manager is always responsible whatever the circumstances!
In most businesses the CEO and / or Chairman is expected to take (at least some) responsibility when it goes t**ts up!
premiership postponed that is a relief, cause the players were looking downbeat to say the least. grealish cut a mighty pi ss ed off player in the final and against foxes. how frustrating it must be to be on a different page to the rest of the team all game.
good teams have special relationships all over the pitch. unfortunately we don’t have any and we only have ten games remaining. two centre backs or three are strangers. grealish and mcginn are probably the only two that instinctively can read each over without pointing or shouting instructions.
hopefully this break can breathe new hope and life into our survival hopes. this break certainly will be better for us than teams like hammers and watford who were on form from what i av seen
I’m in Sid’s camp here (although I don’t see how the EPL / EFL can draw a line under the season just yet). However, I can’t see the situation changing dramatically by 3rd April where the Government’s own strategy is to flatten the peak which probably takes us into May or June.
It’s tough on everyone but there can’t be normal promotion or relegation if the season isn’t completed and I would expect legal challenges should the EPL or EFL try to enforce same – so yes – it’s an ill wind etc.
The one exception for me is that I think Liverpool have earned the right to be crowned Champions but unlikely to happen if the season’s not completed.
However, if Euro 2020 is postponed a year then the ‘season’ could run through the summer.
Interesting times
Hitchens
Agree with your comments. Daily Mail today has an article about Leeds & WBA coming up with no relegation. Then 5 down next year.
This gives us a chance to keep Grealish, get players with long term injuries for and buy in some quality for next year. I am convinced the club has achieved a lucky break (football related) not for those who will be out at risk by the virus.