So we stand on the threshold of a new Premier League season having lost our talisman and captain but £100m richer. We’ve also lost JT and the gravitas that he brings to the club but we always knew he would move on at some point. Austin MacPhee has joined as set-piece coach and may be JT’s ‘replacement’.
As usual I’m full of optimism that this will be the season where we break into the top six and Europe but also with nagging doubts given the performance statistics over the last four seasons when Grealish was absent from the team.
NSWE have once again put their hands deep into their pockets and backed Smith to the tune of around £100m (it’s been reported that we paid a £5m loan fee for Tuanzebe) with possibly more signings to come. Buendia and Ings were a master class in transfer dealings and both will improve Villa’s attacking options. Add to that the signing of Bailey, although a bit of an unknown in Premier League terms, and the shrewd addition of Young and there’s no doubt the squad has been strengthened despite the outgoing(s)!
Although I didn’t see the friendly against Salernitana reports suggest that we played a less intricate more direct style of football adopting a 4-2-2-2 style of play with Nakamba and McGinn the two defensive midfielders and Ings and Watkins up top.
Contrary to most expectations it seems Ings ‘drifted’ and Watkins continued to play a more central attacking role on the defender’s shoulders.
The other interesting observation from Sunday’s game is the impact that MacPhee is already making in terms of more variety at set pieces and throw-ins.
Injuries though are already a major concern.
Watkins (thigh), Buendia (hip), Sanson (knee), Guilbert (unknown) are all likely to miss the Watford game. Bailey is completing his quarantine and Luiz is likely to be absent for two to three weeks following his goal medal at the Olympics. Trezeguet is a long term absentee and Davis is out injured – again.
It’s likely we will be fielding a ‘weakened’ side with possibly both Ramsey and Philogene-Bodace starting. It seems to me that we can ill afford to offload El Ghazi or Hourihane at present with the number of senior players unavailable.
Watford, as you might expect, have bought in a lot of new players including Danny Rose and Joshua King who bring experience to the side. They have a class winger in Sarr and our old nemesis Troy Deeney up front who delights in scoring against us – far too often.
Under Xisco Munoz they are likely to employ a very open attacking style of play and will surprise a few sides, particularly at home, but it remains to be seen whether a philosophy of scoring one more goal than the opposition will work. Our own experiences in the EPL suggests not.
Villa have only played Watford 18 times and results between the teams are pretty even. We’ve only managed to win once away from home (L5 D3) conceding an average of 2.11 goals per game. We last played them in our awful relegation season of 2015/2016 losing both games.
if we have aspirations of a top six finish then these are the games we need to win; but playing a promoted side on their own ground on the opening day of the season is notoriously difficult to call. With the return of crowds and the likelihood we’ll be missing some key players then this is a tough opening fixture.
A draw for me.
We may have improved the depth of the squad but with the number of players likely to be missing on Saturday it suggests we may need to bring in further players before the transfer deadline. Particularly if players like El Ghazi and Hourihane are allowed to leave the club.
I’ve discounted Wesley as I don’t think he has anything further to offer.
Bloody hell Hitch we’ve lost aready with that reading of the post, let’s forget we have two sick notes in our team and get rid of players like them two so called strikers in Davis and Wesley, I’m biting my finger nails now I just hope we’ve got the right new players.
Apologies Bill – it wasn’t meant to be negative but an honest appraisal ahead of Saturday’s game.
I think we’ve had an excellent window but it just shows how much depth you need in the squad.
Having said that I think Saturday will be a real test.
I am worried Hitch, I did watch the game against a relatively new football team and not jumping for joy as players was being changed quickly. Ramsey and Chuckie got into the game after we changed McGinn, Nakamba, who was the main driving force, but for some reason thought we wasn’t clinical in the game on a whole. Watford have bought well in their players with years of games behind them and its not going to be a pushover for us. I just hope our players know it’s a win after the lose of you know who… think I’m being unreasonable Hitch but worried.. utv.
Hitch
This is quite an annoying fixture! Watford are a team we must be looking to take 6 points from this season. With a number of the team missing there is an increased chance of dropping points, which could well be costly in terms of European places at the end of the season. Would it be better to have had Man City away first match of the season? The result would be a formality and gives the players an extra week for fitness etc. In the final table of the season this would have a negligible impact on final standings.
But enough of the negative. We will have our defence and midfield from last season. That should be strong enough to keep Watford out. With Ings starting we now have an edge on last year with a natural born goal scorer. With any combination of Watkins, Young, El Gahzi, JPB or even Buendia being able to come on as a sub, we have enough fire power to open up Watford.
I’m expecting our first away win of the season.
Ps I’d strongly recommend The Holy Trinity Show on YouTube. Great analysis of the Villa.
Fair points Sid and I agree about The Holy Trinity.
My main concern is the possible lack of creativity if Buendia is unfit (albeit we don’t want to revert to relying on one player). As you say the defence picks itself with Nakamba and McGinn as the holding mid fielders and will, hopefully, be as resilient as last term.
Ings will play up top on his own and I expect Young and El Ghazi (instead of Watkins) to start. It’s the final selection that concerns me. Normally it would be Buendia.
Who would you start with – suspect it will be Ramsey?
Actually that still looks a pretty decent line up but does it have enough creativity?
It seems odd that we have so many injuries before the season has even started.
It seems players are massively injury prone these days, compared to years back when players were nowhere near as fit and drank and smoked like troopers.
First day of the season is always a bit strange, games are mostly played at a slow pace and are rarely typical of how a season will go.
I’d take a draw, but as has been pointed out, we really ought to be looking at taking the points.
With our defence and attack we ought to have enough and for me, the season revolves around how well our midfield blends.
This is our best chance for a push for Europe in a good while. Let’s hope we can do it.
It seems a number of clubs have suffered injuries in pre season friendlies.
That’s my point.
I think we over-train players these days.
Perhaps they’d do better going back to a greasy fry up, 30 fags and a bucket of beer every day? 😉
Two interesting comments by Dean Smith – according to Birmingham Live.
First – he thinks Watkins will be fit for Saturday. Second that Martinez played a role in us securing Buendia’s signature.
Unless we have a season full of injuries, then we should be looking to get a Europa spot. That will be by finishing top 6 or winning a cup. The way I see it is there are a top 4 or 5 which are Citeh, Man Ure, Chelski, Pool and Leicester. Behind them we should be seriously challenging. A lot of fans saying 8th or 9th would be good. Personally with the amount of money spent I would consider that disappointing. Our owners have a 5 year plan to be playing in Europe. This is season 4 coming up and we can be absolutely certain that if we don’t make Europe next season, then players like Watkins, Martinez and McGinn plus any others who shine will be snapped up. If Jack can be tempted away while we are making good progress then that means all of them would happily go elsewhere. I think we need one more signing to solve a big problem we have and that is JWP! If he costs £40 – £50m then just go for it. We look like losing Hourihane and him apart we are useless at corners / free kicks. A player like JWP will create and score enough to warrant spending big. Goals after all mean points and points make prizes!
If I was in charge of the Villa, I’d be setting 4th as this year’s target, with 6th as a ‘worst case scenario’ contingency. If we add 2 more quality players, which we might, we have an incredible squad with top quality in all areas, and not to be underestimated youthful energy and exuberance in abundance.
As I said in a previous post: aim high! Before Jack’s injury, we looked like we could contest for the 4th spot. We were well in there. A strong start up to January, similar to last year, should see us challenge again.
Aim. HIGH!
More on our squad. In our first year back we needed quantity, so the quality was low, with the likes of Wesley, Trez and Engels coming in. Last year, we went up a gear. This year, again, we’ve seen a higher calibre of player coming in. All that’s left (maybe next summer?) in terms of level is the blockbusting 50 million plus players which will put AVFC back in the limelight of world football. If we get top 4 this season – which should be a target – we can then attract two 50mil + players next summer, and we are well and truly back in business.
Aim. HIGH!
Away to Barrow in the Carabou. That ought to be a win, but you never know with our recent cup record!
If Smith plays 11 first-teamers, we should win by at least 5 goals, Badger.
Hey guys, don’t forget we did eventually learn how to play without Grealish. The first half a dozen games were terrible and we looked lost. When Jack eventually came back, and not fully fit, he disrupted the new rhythm.
I think we’ll do well but again the squad have to adapt to a new style of play.
We were ONLY 12 points off 4th last season – that’s only 4 wins. how many points did we chuck away? I honestly believe we should be in the mix for top 4 come Easter ’22.
We have the best GK in the league; the defence has the potential to be The best in the league and was one of the best last season; Citeh didn’t have a better defence than us – they just had far less to do, for obvious reasons. Our forward line is up there with the best now. Perhaps one more top drawer midfielder and we really should fear no one!
Believe. Aim. HIGH!
UTV
I’m happy to go with the “aim high” mantra.
I really think this season, we’ll either seriously challenge for top 4 or we’ll be amongst the relegation candidates.
I know that sounds daft, but I don’t for one minute think we’ll be middling.
Meanwhile, it seems everyone is itching to take a potshot at us.
Jack states the blindingly obvious in saying he won’t be doubled or tripled upon this season and a few fans moan.
And ST holders get a free token from Socios, a crypto outfit.
Where a few fans moan.
It’s laughable how a few twats or facebookers seem to drive what’s going on.
The reality is I really don’t think they do.
Emi Martinez well on his way to legendary status at Villa. Do we have a new skipper yet?
I really do feel for Southampton fans, another key play off to Leicester. I’m pretty sure it’s only a matter of time before ward prowse is gone and of course we now have ings.
A club that’s always looked to have so much potential in my eyes.
There needs to be some really fair play rules introduced and quickly to our league. A few simple rules, transfer fees to be capped, salaries, or just the number of transfer per window. I absolutely hate how the window stays open for a couple weeks into the season. Never understood that one
O’Kelly incidents puts me in mind of my time as Chief Steward, they employed a ex superintendent from Sutton as ground commander and he over sore what I had done in 20 years of working for the club. That was why I walked away he was a coward in my eyes got others to fire the bullets and stood back when trouble broke out. Something has definitely gone on and O’Kelly been pushed out . Mark my words.
Should we be concerned that Richard O’Kelly has departed soon after JT?
Let’s get Mellberg or Laursen or both in to inspire fans and players. If they can coach with the same fire in their bellies as when they played, we would definitely benefit.
Whatever happens, I’m sure DS and the owners won’t be derailed from the plan. Like BFR mentioned, we need to aim for the top to achieve success. 6th place this season must be the minimum target.
Yes, I believe we should.
O’Kelly has been Smith’s right hand man for ten years and we’ve seen in the past that breaking up long term partnerships at coaching level can have a significant negative impact on performance.
The question is ‘Why has he chosen this moment to leave the club?’
Is there something going on of which we’re unaware and is Smith’s position under threat before we’ve even kicked a ball? Are there disagreements over the players, the playing style or coaching methods. For instance has there been a ‘stand off’ between Kelly and MacPhee?
Not good.
Not good news re O’Kelly leaving 2days before kickoff smells like O’Neill.
Is this the beginning of the end for Smith I wonder.
Where’s purslow now ?how come he not saying anything about O’Kelly leaving?
Very worried about what’s suddenly happening at villa
You do have to be somewhat concerned that both Terry and O’Kelly have left in quick succession. I really hope there are no underlying issues that are about to surface on the eve of the new season.
Despite the transfer of JG, there is such a huge amount of optimism surrounding the club at the moment and I really think top 7 or 8 in Smith’s 4th season would represent another huge step in the right direction (don’t forget we’re a year ahead on the 5-year plan as no one expected promotion in 2019).
Looking forward to seeing Buendia, Bailey and Ings helping Watkins tear defences apart. Back 5 look solid as a rock. If we can bring in a quality midfielder we should be right up there.
UTV
I never thought Shakespeare would settle for less than #2, so JC and OK were on borrowed time.
I am more bothered by MacPhee: coaching N. Ireland is no recommendation, more the reverse. Take his syrup off and he looks just like another figure familiar to the Holte. I expect his debut appearance to be met with “Are you Southgate in disguise?” Only an improvement in our set pieces will dispel that question.
Nanny MacPhee?
Guys, I must’ve been away and missed the memo. Who the f*** is MacPhee??
Austin MacPhee – he’s the newly appointed set piece coach. He’s also assistant coach with Northern Ireland – a job he’ll keep.
He has an interesting background.
Time will tell if he’s any good!
Ah…I quite like the idea of a specialist for different aspects of the game. Having said that, how hard can it be? Watch hours of old footage of matches and ‘copy and paste’ all the good corner and free-kick routines. Then pretend their your ideas and watch top class players practise them. Sounds like a great job!
There are suggestions that Buendia will be fit for Saturday after he tweeted last night. Also Bailey training having finished quarantine so maybe on the bench.
How good would that be Watkins and Buendia fit and Bailey on the bench.
If true might change my forecast!
From Smith’s news conference this morning
O’Kelly left on amicable terms. Reading between the lines one gets the impression he feels the club have moved on and he can’t add more than he’s done already. Stayed on extra months with JT leaving and Smith self isolating.
Interviewing for a replacement for JT but doubts they will add any more coaching staff after that.
Seemed to suggest no further additions but players likely to go out on loan. Now that’s quite interesting or was he just being ‘professional’ because I would expect us to sell a couple. On that basis El Ghazi might well be staying which, personally, I would welcome. He scored 11 goals in 31 appearances last season and has improved year on year. He’s a brilliant penalty taker and a more than useful member of the squad.
Buendia and Bailey both available for tomorrow’s game. Watkins (bruised knee) remains a doubt but will be assessed today.
All in all, pretty good I would say.
UTV
I think O’Kelly leaving is a really bad thing.
You don’t break up a 10 year partnership if there aren’t serious issues, imo.
Unless you’ve just got bored, which I don’t see at O’Kelly’s age.
Mind you, I’m not that surprised, Villa are doing a great job of making everything look harmonious, but there’s no way it can be all great.
Smith is probably just a tool in the machine that is now Aston Villa.
Is that a good or bad thing? I don’t know.
As an aside, I’m having major issues about FFP and the money we’ve spent over the last 3 seasons. This comes to mind particularly when we moan like crazy as fans when the usual suspects spend big.
Still, it’s not a time to be downbeat.
Onwards and upwards!
Reckon we’re OK on FFP now we’ve sold Grealish and given the fact some leeway on losses is going to be introduced because of Covid.
We’re debt free which is a big plus due to NSWE funding the club through share issues.
On FFP the £100m for Jack goes straight to the bottom line. We’ve spent around £90m on new players with an average contract of around 4 years so only £25m of that has to be included in this years accounts – a profit of circa £75m on transfers. I’ve excluded loan fees either way.
I think EPL clubs are allowed to lose around £300m over a rolling three year period.
Our net spend is negative this year, isn’t it?
BFR – for accounting purposes we will make a significant profit on transfer activities this year – unless we spend another £200m or so 🙂