A new season, Watford first up and injury problems already

So we stand on the threshold of a new Premier League season having lost our talisman and captain but £100m richer. We’ve also lost JT and the gravitas that he brings to the club but we always knew he would move on at some point. Austin MacPhee has joined as set-piece coach and may be JT’s ‘replacement’.

As usual I’m full of optimism that this will be the season where we break into the top six and Europe but also with nagging doubts given the performance statistics over the last four seasons when Grealish was absent from the team.

NSWE have once again put their hands deep into their pockets and backed Smith to the tune of around £100m (it’s been reported that we paid a £5m loan fee for Tuanzebe) with possibly more signings to come. Buendia and Ings were a master class in transfer dealings and both will improve Villa’s attacking options. Add to that the signing of Bailey, although a bit of an unknown in Premier League terms, and the  shrewd addition of Young and there’s no doubt the squad has been strengthened despite the outgoing(s)!

Although I didn’t see the friendly against Salernitana reports suggest that we played a less intricate more direct style of football adopting a 4-2-2-2 style of play with Nakamba and McGinn the two defensive midfielders and Ings and Watkins up top.

Contrary to most expectations it seems Ings ‘drifted’ and Watkins continued to play a more central attacking role on the defender’s shoulders.

The other interesting observation from Sunday’s game is the impact that MacPhee is already making in terms of more variety at set pieces and throw-ins. 

Injuries though are already a major concern.

Watkins (thigh), Buendia (hip), Sanson (knee), Guilbert (unknown) are all likely to miss the Watford game. Bailey is completing his quarantine and Luiz is likely to be absent for two to three weeks following his goal medal at the Olympics. Trezeguet is a long term absentee and Davis is out injured – again.

It’s likely we will be fielding a ‘weakened’ side with possibly both Ramsey and Philogene-Bodace starting. It seems to me that we can ill afford to offload El Ghazi or Hourihane at present with the number of senior players unavailable.

Watford, as you might expect, have bought in a lot of new players including Danny Rose and Joshua King who bring experience to the side. They have a class winger in Sarr and our old nemesis Troy Deeney up front who delights in scoring against us – far too often.

Under Xisco Munoz they are likely to employ a very open attacking style of play and will surprise a few sides, particularly at home, but it remains to be seen whether a philosophy of scoring one more goal than the opposition will work. Our own experiences in the EPL suggests not.

Villa have only played Watford 18 times and results between the teams are pretty even. We’ve only managed to win once away from home (L5 D3) conceding an average of 2.11 goals per game. We last played them in our awful relegation season of 2015/2016 losing both games.


if we have aspirations of a top six finish then these are the games we need to win; but playing a promoted side on their own ground on the opening day of the season is notoriously difficult to call. With the return of crowds and the likelihood we’ll be missing some key players then this is a tough opening fixture.

A draw for me.

 

116 Comments

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  1. OLL again
    OLL again August 14, 2021 at 6:23 pm . Reply

    First game without JG looked the same as the last game without him.

    So agree Mings entirely the wrong person to be skipper. Apart from his off-field posturing and his confession of self doubt [OK to have it, not OK to reveal it] he most often needs an on-the-pitch b*ll**king from the skipper for his casual errors: so how as skipper is he to do that? If he tried to kick himself up the backside he would probably miss. I would give the armband to Martinez. No leadership from Mings in getting cover for Targett who was doubled up on.

    Smith’s tactics invisible. El Ghazi on the right? When did that work? No attempt to run at Watford down the middle, crosses were hit and hope. Mings, Konsa and Nakamba all had passes cut out too often. Before passing a player should assess if his pass could be cut out by a player moving forward to intercept. That is the one you don’t risk. Play the pass the opponent has to turn around to cut out, that way you don’t get caught on the break. Perhaps we will get a new coach to explain that.

    1. Hitchens60
      Hitchens60 August 14, 2021 at 6:36 pm . Reply

      And Buendia – not one comment on his invisible contribution – or am I missing something?

      He’s supposed to be the main creator in the side – where was that today?

      1. Tom
        Tom August 14, 2021 at 8:03 pm . Reply

        Poor poor poor!

        36 year old young starts as left winger, El Gahzi has never ever once been a capable winger. Should have good Bidance and Troare. Target had his pants pulled down, just what the hell was Smith thinking fielding that starting 11. Last season we had an incredible start and it continued for some time whilst beating some very good teams along the way. 7-2 Liverpool being the standout. We cannot presume such luck this season.
        I hope the management and coaching team didn’t overlook anything when they publicly speak of European ambitions because to be taken seriously you don’t get let off in games like today, you have to start swinging big time when it’s 1-0 down and it will be the same the next game and the one after that. Every minute, player selection will be punished if overlooked

      2. OLL again
        OLL again August 15, 2021 at 12:03 am . Reply

        Yes Hitch. When it comes to debut let-downs you would have to go back a few years to find a worse start from a big-money midfielder. 2 candidates come to my mind, Stephen Ireland and Fabian Delph.

  2. Holte
    Holte August 14, 2021 at 7:50 pm . Reply

    I hate the fact that we were outfought and bullied especially in the first half. That is what Smith alluded to in his post match interview. Too many times I see and hear that story. I hope at half time they had an almighty bollocking. No fan likes losing but when it’s because the opposition wanted it more, then that’s totally unacceptable. Drop as many players as possible for Newcastle without weakening the team too much. Traore, Bailey or even Bidace for El Ghazi. Start Young instead of Targett. Maybe Guilbert or Tuanzebe for Cash! Watkins will hopefully start so even Buendia could be dropped. If Luiz was available I would drop Nakamba too. We must have a squad whereby a player who doesn’t give 100% WILL be dropped. We can’t afford passengers in the premier league. Last season we relied on Grealish and even though we don’t have a player of his ability anymore we do have more depth to our squad.

  3. Sidforever
    Sidforever August 14, 2021 at 8:09 pm . Reply

    I called this one wrong.

    It feels like substandard square pegs in round holes. By general consensus Targett had a shocker. But I feared the worst when I saw our attack. El Ghazi is not a starter nor is Young in that attacking position – he spent the last year as left back, plus he failed to bale Targett out. Further Buendia plays more right side of midfield. This 2 poor picks and one out of position.

    Wow did we miss Watkins.

    But the good news is Bailey provided an assist and Ings scored. Further we scored 2 away from home when playing poorly.

    I will place my statutory 1 pint bet. We will beat Newcastle comfortably next week. As Watkins will be back, allowing Buendia to play on the right and Bailey on the left.

    The big decision this week is whether to buy a quality defensive midfielder?

  4. Holte
    Holte August 14, 2021 at 9:05 pm . Reply

    We need JWP! Nanny McPhee might be set piece coach but from what I saw today there were no signs of any improvement on last season. We don’t need a set piece coach but we do need a player who knows how to take them. How many Villa fans get excited by a corner or a free kick around the 18 yard box? If we had a player like JWP then we might have scored the goals last season that turned draws into victories and defeats into draws. Set pieces in the modern game could be the difference between mid table and a European place.

  5. STEVEP1874
    STEVEP1874 August 14, 2021 at 10:01 pm . Reply

    Well, that was abject.
    Pre-season optimism gone inside 60 minutes, battered by a promoted team who will be in the bottom 5 at the end of the season.
    What really annoys and frustrates me is our lack of competitiveness and fighting spirit from the start.
    We all know what you’re going to get…and yet we always seem to be caught off guard and taken by surprise, that simply shouldn’t happen 🤬🤬
    Targett obviously had a shocker, not quite sure how you can go from having such an excellent season last time out to a nightmare in game 1…unless he’s one who can’t cope with fans being back.
    Buendia was anonymous and, as for Ghazi, don’t get me started. A promising talent if things are going well and he’s half-interested…but goes missing far too often when the going gets tough.
    We are too lightweight in the middle of the park. I desperately hope we see a strong, dominant central midfielder incoming by the end of Aug as I fear none of Naka, Luiz, Sanson or Ramsey are good enough to get us to where we want to be this season.

  6. Roy Bracy
    Roy Bracy August 15, 2021 at 1:47 am . Reply

    Looks like grealish, Terry and O’Kelly knew this 2as coming and jumped ship like rats before it sank.
    Or before they would be replaced as Smith will be sooner rather than later these owners are not going to put up with this for long.
    I wonder I the players brought in are for another manager not Smith because he just doesn’t know how to use them.
    Maybe we need to go 3at the back
    With wing backs and two up top.mcginn as attacking mf and proper Def mid f.
    Why the hell didn’t they buy date I thought they had interest in him.
    Bloody crap relegation battle ahead.

  7. OLL again
    OLL again August 15, 2021 at 9:03 am . Reply

    The Targett problem is simpler to remedy. It is no disgrace to be slower than a man who has the looks of an Olympic sprinter – if Matt was roasted for speed by half the wingers in the Prem it would be. Once you know you have that problem Targett must stay back around the 18 yard area or have cover on the winger when he goes forward with the ball. That might mean the whole back line has to sit back but that is no bad thing, it means more space behind the opponents as they press forward.

    If Villa had to enter a team for the 100 metre relay Targett would not make it. I guess Mings, Cash, Watkins and Bailey would.

    The Buendia problem is worrying. Perhaps he wasn’t fully fit, but it is more likely that he isn’t yet up to the Premier League physical challenge. Playing the championship and even international football is not that intense. Sansom seemed to have the same shock.

    1. Big Fat Ron
      Big Fat Ron August 15, 2021 at 10:10 am . Reply

      Guys, there isn’t a Buendia problem. Give the guy a chance. He’s played one game. Watford have big powerful players and we don’t. We haven’t bought any. I don’t know why because we need at least one. Our midfield was powderpuff against them. Sarr is a monster and we should have signed him up about the same time Buendia was signed. Now we need to look elsewhere. JWP would be an excellent addition. But we’d still need that powerhouse in the centre. I read an excellent comment on Twitter stating that we basically need one player with Luiz’s AND Nakamba’s skills but taller. Sounds like Sarr.

      Anyway, there are at least two pieces of the jigsaw missing – I hope at least one is added before the deadline.

      p.s. don’t sell Hause; he was excellent last winter and was unlucky to lose his place when Mings came back.

      Finally, I do worry for Smith, as he doesn’t seem to learn – same mistakes. And our club have a history of dispatching managers after 3 seasons/in the fourth. He needs to take charge and STOP making the same errors. McGinn in the FINAL THIRD FFS. TARGET: DOUBLE FIGURES IN GOALS AND DOUBLE FIGURES IN ASSISTS. HE’S MORE THAN CAPABLE.

      1. Big Fat Ron
        Big Fat Ron August 15, 2021 at 3:57 pm . Reply

        In fact, I’d go as far as saying McGinn would be a great captain and should step up to be Villa’s talisman in Jack’s absence. Give him licence and he’ll produce. Take the reigns off. Isn’t this the player Manchester United were looking at for 50 million not so long ago? Glorious goal yesterday btw.

  8. Hitchens60
    Hitchens60 August 15, 2021 at 10:47 am . Reply

    Badger is away getting a few rays so I’ll put a new post up later today when I’ve thought what to say 🙂

    Thanks for your patience

  9. DSVilla
    DSVilla August 15, 2021 at 11:06 am . Reply

    We aren’t world beaters and we aren’t crap. Targett was up against a good winger and not up to speed. Buendia has missed a few games and that was his first competitive match for us. Bailey looks good. Ings is off the mark. Luiz will be back soon and Watkins hopefully sooner. We will do fine, probably starting with Newcastle.

  10. little8
    little8 August 15, 2021 at 1:12 pm . Reply

    Giving mings the armband is a massive mistake this is a player who completely lacks confidence in himself. To admit his mental health was at rock bottom before the Croatia game just because of something Rio said smacks of a lack of self belief ,he is a decent player but no captain.

    1. Tom
      Tom August 15, 2021 at 3:26 pm . Reply

      In hindsight, yes I agree. I maybe would have given this to Minga if the choice was mine. I always felt Luis would have been a good call. As it’s stands, I’d move it round until it’s early. Something for the guys to fight for.

      1. Big Fat Ron
        Big Fat Ron August 15, 2021 at 3:53 pm . Reply

        Martinez. Full stop. Full commitment to the cause. Very few errors, and those he makes are inevitable in his position. Leads by example. Positive voice and advocate of the club. No brainer.

        If you make Mings captain, he’s harder to drop, but he makes too many errors to be undroppable. Another mistake by Smith, in my opinion.

  11. STEVEP1874
    STEVEP1874 August 15, 2021 at 7:57 pm . Reply

    I know I’m against the tide of opinion on here…but I’m happy with Mings as captain. He’s grounded, vocal and a leader.

    What concerns me far more is 1] given we all knew Sarr was the Watford danger man, why did we not get closer to/double up on him?

    And 2] as others have posted on here, Smith does seem to make the same mistakes on a regular basis. Ghazi on the right doesn’t work, McGinn needs to play further forward yet the word from the club is they see him as a #6?

    We will get better…but why is it other teams hit the ground running and we don’t? Complacency? Whichever way you dissect it, getting outmuscled and outfought by a promoted club with less talented players on the 1st day of the season is not a good look!

    1. Big Fat Ron
      Big Fat Ron August 16, 2021 at 3:55 pm . Reply

      McGinn a 6? Excuse me while I vomit. The guy”s a David Platt 8 all day long, with a better engine.

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